América FC vs. Avaí FC: O/U 2.5
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 79¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 56%
$2.1K
-$80.63
55.7¢ → 79¢
+42% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 59.1¢ | $900.46 | $1.1K | +$203.43 | 53% 2166-1916 (4082) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 51.4¢ | $877 | $576.5 | -$300.5 | 55% 5404-4376 (9780) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 43.8¢ | $160.63 | $172.85 | +$12.21 | 49% 3969-4117 (8086) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Overavg 51.2¢ | $140.88 | $145.88 | +$5.01 | 37% 1063-1799 (2862) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Overavg 56.2¢ | $47.61 | $44.91 | -$2.7 | 46% 2762-3273 (6035) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 43.9¢ | $35.47 | $38.05 | +$2.59 | 42% 1031-1416 (2447) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 57¢ | $15.81 | $14.71 | -$1.1 | 54% 1422-1229 (2651) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $6.95 | $6.79 | -$0.16 | 55% 502-403 (905) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $5.11 | $5.72 | +$0.61 | 36% 481-851 (1332) |
Invested
$900.46
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$203.43
Record
53%
2166-1916 (4082)
RN1CTRInvested
$877
Value
$576.5
PnL
-$300.5
Record
55%
5404-4376 (9780)
Invested
$160.63
Value
$172.85
PnL
+$12.21
Record
49%
3969-4117 (8086)
Invested
$140.88
Value
$145.88
PnL
+$5.01
Record
37%
1063-1799 (2862)
Invested
$47.61
Value
$44.91
PnL
-$2.7
Record
46%
2762-3273 (6035)
Invested
$35.47
Value
$38.05
PnL
+$2.59
Record
42%
1031-1416 (2447)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$15.81
Value
$14.71
PnL
-$1.1
Record
54%
1422-1229 (2651)
Invested
$6.95
Value
$6.79
PnL
-$0.16
Record
55%
502-403 (905)
Invested
$5.11
Value
$5.72
PnL
+$0.61
Record
36%
481-851 (1332)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.