Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

América FC vs. Avaí FC: O/U 1.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 47¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Over47¢Under53¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$259.26

Smart Money Entry

74.1¢ → 47¢

-37% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$991.98

Total Shares1,290

Combined PnL+$35.59

Under6 traders

Total Value$741.05

Total Shares1,820

Combined PnL+$223.67

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 74.2¢	$699.12	$725.08	+$25.96	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
LI Limousin	Underavg 27¢	$194.03	$355.72	+$161.69	36% 979-1704 (2683)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 41.1¢	$181.04	$233.29	+$52.25	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 78¢	$177.84	$180.12	+$2.28	54% 1422-1229 (2651)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 21¢	$100.95	$110.49	+$9.54	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 59.7¢	$39.83	$45.02	+$5.19	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 73¢	$39.6	$41.77	+$2.17	53% 7148-6248 (13396)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 21¢	$23.65	$25.85	+$2.2	42% 1031-1416 (2447)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 25.9¢	$8.97	$7.97	-$1	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 26¢	$8.74	$7.72	-$1.02	37% 996-1715 (2711)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$699.12

Value

$725.08

PnL

+$25.96

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$194.03

Value

$355.72

PnL

+$161.69

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$181.04

Value

$233.29

PnL

+$52.25

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$177.84

Value

$180.12

PnL

+$2.28

Record

54%

1422-1229 (2651)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$100.95

Value

$110.49

PnL

+$9.54

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.83

Value

$45.02

PnL

+$5.19

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.6

Value

$41.77

PnL

+$2.17

Record

53%

7148-6248 (13396)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$23.65

Value

$25.85

PnL

+$2.2

Record

42%

1031-1416 (2447)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$8.97

Value

$7.97

PnL

-$1

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$8.74

Value

$7.72

PnL

-$1.02

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.