América FC vs. Avaí FC: O/U 0.5
3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 78¢ · $575 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 33%
$574.88
-$32.87
89.1¢ → 78.4¢
-12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 dips. | Overavg 87.6¢ | $225.88 | $204.62 | -$21.26 | 47% 993-1122 (2115) |
SU suitcase6628 | Overavg 88.8¢ | $159.78 | $144.09 | -$15.69 | 64% 628-348 (976) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 92¢ | $147.26 | $136.21 | -$11.06 | 53% 2166-1916 (4082) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 12¢ | $53.66 | $67.51 | +$13.85 | 47% 936-1037 (1973) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 12.9¢ | $9.2 | $10.91 | +$1.71 | 37% 1063-1799 (2862) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 20.4¢ | $5.1 | $5.21 | +$0.11 | 55% 5404-4376 (9780) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 20.8¢ | $3.5 | $3.48 | -$0.02 | 37% 1003-1721 (2724) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 10¢ | $2.78 | $1.67 | -$1.11 | 38% 1015-1688 (2703) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 3¢ | $0.59 | $1.18 | +$0.59 | 49% 3969-4117 (8086) |
dips.Invested
$225.88
Value
$204.62
PnL
-$21.26
Record
47%
993-1122 (2115)
Invested
$159.78
Value
$144.09
PnL
-$15.69
Record
64%
628-348 (976)
Invested
$147.26
Value
$136.21
PnL
-$11.06
Record
53%
2166-1916 (4082)
Invested
$53.66
Value
$67.51
PnL
+$13.85
Record
47%
936-1037 (1973)
Invested
$9.2
Value
$10.91
PnL
+$1.71
Record
37%
1063-1799 (2862)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$5.1
Value
$5.21
PnL
+$0.11
Record
55%
5404-4376 (9780)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.48
PnL
-$0.02
Record
37%
1003-1721 (2724)
Invested
$2.78
Value
$1.67
PnL
-$1.11
Record
38%
1015-1688 (2703)
Invested
$0.59
Value
$1.18
PnL
+$0.59
Record
49%
3969-4117 (8086)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.