Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
América FC vs. Avaí FC: Both Teams to Score
Resolved No. 14% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Yes 20%
1 arb excluded
$966.82
-$279.06
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO Rocky31CTR | Yesavg 92¢ | $653.2 | — | -$653.2 | 44% 112-142 (254) |
 RN1 | Noavg 74¢ | $321.9 | $435 | +$113.1 | 55% 5525-4565 (10090) |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $181.37 | $200 | +$18.64 | 38% 1175-1954 (3129) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 77¢ | $154 | $200 | +$46 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 52¢ | $27.37 | — | -$27.37 | |
AR ARocky33 | Noavg 8.3¢ | $18.36 | $222 | +$203.64 | 78% 805-225 (1030) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $44.46 | $92.63 | +$48.17 | 37% 1070-1834 (2904) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 47.3¢ | $8.13 | $17.18 | +$9.05 | 49% 4123-4317 (8440) |
VA Vampiro1<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $0.01 | +$0.55 | 84% 243-48 (291) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $4.75 | $0 | -$0.37 | 54% 1525-1316 (2841) |
Invested
$653.2
Value
—
PnL
-$653.2
Record
44%
112-142 (254)
RN1Invested
$321.9
Value
$435
PnL
+$113.1
Record
55%
5525-4565 (10090)
Invested
$181.37
Value
$200
PnL
+$18.64
Record
38%
1175-1954 (3129)
Both legs:
Invested
$18.36
Value
$222
PnL
+$203.64
Record
78%
805-225 (1030)
Invested
$44.46
Value
$92.63
PnL
+$48.17
Record
37%
1070-1834 (2904)
Invested
$8.13
Value
$17.18
PnL
+$9.05
Record
49%
4123-4317 (8440)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0.55
Record
84%
243-48 (291)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$4.75
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.37
Record
54%
1525-1316 (2841)