Will Avaí FC win on 2026-11-14?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 61¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$64.44

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 60.5¢

+18% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$509.82

Total Shares781

Combined PnL+$64.33

Yes1 trader

Total Value$5.42

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$0.11

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 48.7¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$55.39	49% 3844-4007 (7851)
└ No leg	Noavg 48.7¢	$505.76	$628.78	+$123.02
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45.7¢	$496.04	$428.4	-$67.63
OD Oddstorm	Noavg 49.3¢	$169.33	$207.93	+$38.6	32% 99-208 (307)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 49.9¢	$185.25	$207.84	+$22.59	46% 496-589 (1085)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 40.9¢	$65.98	$65.77	-$0.21	53% 2094-1845 (3939)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.9¢	$40.57	$39.22	-$1.35
└ No leg	Noavg 57.9¢	$25.41	$26.55	+$1.14
SE sentrioARB<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$61.46	$62.91	+$1.45	42% 1002-1373 (2375)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42¢	$42.52	$39.99	-$2.53
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$18.94	$22.92	+$3.98
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 60¢	$59.85	$60.35	+$0.5	59% 3767-2593 (6360)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 59¢	$24.01	$24.62	+$0.61	37% 357-610 (967)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 47¢	$7.05	$9.08	+$2.02	48% 2091-2257 (4348)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$5.3	$5.42	+$0.11	53% 1366-1192 (2558)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$1,001.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$55.39

Record

49%

3844-4007 (7851)

Both legs:

No$505.7648.7¢+$123.02

Yes$496.0445.7¢-$67.63

Oddstorm

Invested

$169.33

Value

$207.93

PnL

+$38.6

Record

32%

99-208 (307)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$185.25

Value

$207.84

PnL

+$22.59

Record

46%

496-589 (1085)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.98

Value

$65.77

PnL

-$0.21

Record

53%

2094-1845 (3939)

Both legs:

Invested

$61.46

Value

$62.91

PnL

+$1.45

Record

42%

1002-1373 (2375)

Both legs:

Yes$42.5242¢-$2.53

No$18.9450¢+$3.98

NM-P<$100

Invested

$59.85

Value

$60.35

PnL

+$0.5

Record

59%

3767-2593 (6360)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$24.01

Value

$24.62

PnL

+$0.61

Record

37%

357-610 (967)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$7.05

Value

$9.08

PnL

+$2.02

Record

48%

2091-2257 (4348)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.3

Value

$5.42

PnL

+$0.11

Record

53%

1366-1192 (2558)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.