Will América FC win on 2026-11-14?

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 69¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Yes31¢No69¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$64.3

Smart Money Entry

67.1¢ → 69¢

+3% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 16 top traders (69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$436.99

Total Shares1,402

Combined PnL-$28.32

No11 traders

Total Value$759.3

Total Shares1,180

Combined PnL-$35.98

Yes — 31%No — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 33.4¢	$447.97	$416.33	-$31.64	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
NM NM-P	Noavg 66¢	$231.94	$225.06	-$6.88	59% 3775-2600 (6375)
GC GC-P	Noavg 66¢	$225.73	$218.89	-$6.84	37% 367-618 (985)
RI RichieRicher	Noavg 72¢	$159.4	$141.69	-$17.71	54% 481-403 (884)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 65¢	$124.3	$122.39	-$1.91	54% 1422-1229 (2651)
RN1<$100	Noavg 61¢	$14.09	$14.47	+$0.38	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 76¢	$16.18	$13.63	-$2.55	42% 1031-1416 (2447)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 32.2¢	$11.59	$12.25	+$0.66	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 64¢	$7.39	$7.33	-$0.06	37% 996-1715 (2711)
GA Gaditima<$100	Noavg 75¢	$6	$5.52	-$0.48	48% 280-301 (581)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$2.4	$3.9	+$1.5	46% 499-597 (1096)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 68¢	$3.6	$3.65	+$0.05	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 68¢	$3.55	$3.6	+$0.05	36% 979-1704 (2683)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 64¢	$3.1	$3.07	-$0.02	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$2	$2.56	+$0.56	35% 378-716 (1094)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$1.35	$1.95	+$0.6	48% 2164-2307 (4471)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$447.97

Value

$416.33

PnL

-$31.64

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

NM-P

Invested

$231.94

Value

$225.06

PnL

-$6.88

Record

59%

3775-2600 (6375)

GC-P

Invested

$225.73

Value

$218.89

PnL

-$6.84

Record

37%

367-618 (985)

RichieRicher

Invested

$159.4

Value

$141.69

PnL

-$17.71

Record

54%

481-403 (884)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$124.3

Value

$122.39

PnL

-$1.91

Record

54%

1422-1229 (2651)

RN1<$100

Invested

$14.09

Value

$14.47

PnL

+$0.38

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$16.18

Value

$13.63

PnL

-$2.55

Record

42%

1031-1416 (2447)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.59

Value

$12.25

PnL

+$0.66

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$7.39

Value

$7.33

PnL

-$0.06

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

Gaditima<$100

Invested

Value

$5.52

PnL

-$0.48

Record

48%

280-301 (581)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$1.5

Record

46%

499-597 (1096)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.65

PnL

+$0.05

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$0.05

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$3.1

Value

$3.07

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.56

PnL

+$0.56

Record

35%

378-716 (1094)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.95

PnL

+$0.6

Record

48%

2164-2307 (4471)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 16 top traders (69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.