Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (61%). 9 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-11-14?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 40¢ · $726 held · ended Nov 14

Yes61¢No39¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

Total Value

$726.11

Combined PnL

-$22.28

Smart Money Entry

32.3¢ → 39.5¢

+22% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes61%

No40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$428.91

Total Shares1,333

Combined PnL-$15.72

Yes4 traders

Total Value$297.2

Total Shares432

Combined PnL-$6.55

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 30.3¢	$187.64	$168.93	-$18.71	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 68¢	$130.16	$125.42	-$4.74	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 72¢	$127.92	$125.25	-$2.66	61% 1043-661 (1704)
RN1CTR	Noavg 37¢	$126.32	$121.34	-$4.98	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 30.1¢	$65.78	$74.36	+$8.58	37% 996-1715 (2711)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$31.74	$32.43	+$0.69	55% 502-403 (905)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 37.6¢	$21.02	$18.99	-$2.03	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$16.09	$16.36	+$0.28	37% 367-618 (985)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 68.5¢	$22.07	$14.1	+$0.16	54% 1422-1229 (2651)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$11.31	$12.36	+$1.05	36% 979-1704 (2683)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$8.12	$8.01	-$0.11	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$6.85	$7.08	+$0.23	49% 1173-1237 (2410)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.48	-$0.02	44% 386-482 (868)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$187.64

Value

$168.93

PnL

-$18.71

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$130.16

Value

$125.42

PnL

-$4.74

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$127.92

Value

$125.25

PnL

-$2.66

Record

61%

1043-661 (1704)

RN1CTR

Invested

$126.32

Value

$121.34

PnL

-$4.98

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$65.78

Value

$74.36

PnL

+$8.58

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.74

Value

$32.43

PnL

+$0.69

Record

55%

502-403 (905)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$21.02

Value

$18.99

PnL

-$2.03

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$16.09

Value

$16.36

PnL

+$0.28

Record

37%

367-618 (985)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.07

Value

$14.1

PnL

+$0.16

Record

54%

1422-1229 (2651)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$11.31

Value

$12.36

PnL

+$1.05

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$8.12

Value

$8.01

PnL

-$0.11

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$6.85

Value

$7.08

PnL

+$0.23

Record

49%

1173-1237 (2410)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.48

PnL

-$0.02

Record

44%

386-482 (868)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 40%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.