Will EC Vitória vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 93¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 6

Yes8¢No92¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$81.69

Smart Money Entry

82.9¢ → 92.5¢

+12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,450

Combined PnL+$241.13

Yes7 traders

Total Value$350.1

Total Shares2,577

Combined PnL-$322.82

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Noavg 82.7¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$160.22	57% 2069-1535 (3604)
RN1	Noavg 92¢	$436.89	$438.94	+$2.05	53% 61818-54099 (115917)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 68.2¢	$207.36	$275.83	+$68.47	50% 28646-28478 (57124)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 25.2¢	$416	$160.15	-$255.85	51% 26515-25136 (51651)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.2¢	$361.76	$93.34	-$268.42
└ No leg	Noavg 75.9¢	$54.23	$66.81	+$12.58
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 87.3¢	$135.94	$146.33	+$10.39	52% 14604-13281 (27885)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 30¢	$169.39	$119.59	-$10.31	58% 47122-33996 (81118)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 30.2¢	$394.53	$111.16	-$283.37	50% 1630-1659 (3289)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$58.65	$53.76	-$4.89	64% 10073-5631 (15704)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.6¢	$49.12	$34.87	-$14.25	50% 1614-1641 (3255)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.9¢	$25.43	$25.02	-$0.41	49% 1568-1653 (3221)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$13.42	$3.7	-$9.72	50% 37993-37250 (75243)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$1.86	$1.99	+$0.13	55% 1405-1159 (2564)

oieshfn345

Invested

$2,207.29

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$160.22

Record

57%

2069-1535 (3604)

RN1

Invested

$436.89

Value

$438.94

PnL

+$2.05

Record

53%

61818-54099 (115917)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$207.36

Value

$275.83

PnL

+$68.47

Record

50%

28646-28478 (57124)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$416

Value

$160.15

PnL

-$255.85

Record

51%

26515-25136 (51651)

Both legs:

Yes$361.7625.2¢-$268.42

No$54.2375.9¢+$12.58

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$135.94

Value

$146.33

PnL

+$10.39

Record

52%

14604-13281 (27885)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$169.39

Value

$119.59

PnL

-$10.31

Record

58%

47122-33996 (81118)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$394.53

Value

$111.16

PnL

-$283.37

Record

50%

1630-1659 (3289)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.65

Value

$53.76

PnL

-$4.89

Record

64%

10073-5631 (15704)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.12

Value

$34.87

PnL

-$14.25

Record

50%

1614-1641 (3255)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.43

Value

$25.02

PnL

-$0.41

Record

49%

1568-1653 (3221)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.42

Value

$3.7

PnL

-$9.72

Record

50%

37993-37250 (75243)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.86

Value

$1.99

PnL

+$0.13

Record

55%

1405-1159 (2564)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.