CR Vasco da Gama vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 2.5

3 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 100¢ · $126K held · ended Oct 29

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$125.8K

Combined PnL

$-2.1K

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 100¢

+77% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 15 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$93.9K

Total Shares163,337

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Under12 traders

Total Value$24.0K

Total Shares61,280

Combined PnL$-3.6K

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

8% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 100% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 92% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH theowalcott	Overavg 56.6¢	$92.4K	$93.9K	+$1.5K	50% 104-105 (209)
RN1CTR	Underavg 43.5¢	$9.5K	$9.1K	-$472.82	54% 56079-48206 (104285)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 43.2¢	$8.0K	$7.9K	-$90.88	50% 24720-24419 (49139)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.2¢	$6.2K	$6.1K	-$106.9
└ Over leg	Overavg 57¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$16.02
us391CTR	Underavg 44¢	$6.3K	$6.1K	-$210.58	51% 1665-1611 (3276)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Underavg 43¢	$4.8K	$4.7K	-$52.72	50% 2486-2470 (4956)
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 43.2¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$32.5	53% 15864-14042 (29906)
HRTradingCTR	Underavg 44¢	$869.99	$840.34	-$29.66	52% 3772-3441 (7213)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 45¢	$540.15	$510	-$30.15	55% 7001-5619 (12620)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Underavg 43.9¢	$319.86	$309.82	-$10.04	58% 28272-20850 (49122)
BE berlinskiesCTR	Underavg 42.7¢	$282.95	$281.32	-$1.63	58% 5799-4256 (10055)
poshposhCTR	Underavg 43¢	$800.48	$41.62	-$758.86	59% 9732-6717 (16449)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$33.22	$32.09	-$1.13	50% 3765-3738 (7503)
ZaiZoiBele<$100	Overavg 62¢	$20.31	$18.84	-$1.47	80% 4996-1235 (6231)
LonnieHawkinss<$100	Overavg 87¢	$4.35	$2.88	-$1.47	52% 1864-1728 (3592)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 44¢	$2.0K	$2.24	$-2.0K	49% 674-698 (1372)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.05	-$0.35	47% 2205-2491 (4696)

theowalcott

Over

Invested

$92,410.92

Value

$93.9K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

50%

104-105 (209)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$9,524.17

Value

$9.1K

PnL

-$472.82

Record

54%

56079-48206 (104285)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$7,981.95

Value

$7.9K

PnL

-$90.88

Record

50%

24720-24419 (49139)

Both legs:

Under$6,219.143.2¢-$106.9

Over$1,762.8657¢+$16.02

us391CTR

Under

Invested

$6,331.33

Value

$6.1K

PnL

-$210.58

Record

51%

1665-1611 (3276)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Under

Invested

$4,773.8

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$52.72

Record

50%

2486-2470 (4956)

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$2,085.64

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$32.5

Record

53%

15864-14042 (29906)

HRTradingCTR

Under

Invested

$869.99

Value

$840.34

PnL

-$29.66

Record

52%

3772-3441 (7213)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$540.15

Value

$510

PnL

-$30.15

Record

55%

7001-5619 (12620)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Under

Invested

$319.86

Value

$309.82

PnL

-$10.04

Record

58%

28272-20850 (49122)

berlinskiesCTR

Under

Invested

$282.95

Value

$281.32

PnL

-$1.63

Record

58%

5799-4256 (10055)

poshposhCTR

Under

Invested

$800.48

Value

$41.62

PnL

-$758.86

Record

59%

9732-6717 (16449)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.22

Value

$32.09

PnL

-$1.13

Record

50%

3765-3738 (7503)

ZaiZoiBele<$100

Over

Invested

$20.31

Value

$18.84

PnL

-$1.47

Record

80%

4996-1235 (6231)

LonnieHawkinss<$100

Over

Invested

$4.35

Value

$2.88

PnL

-$1.47

Record

52%

1864-1728 (3592)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$1,974.79

Value

$2.24

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

49%

674-698 (1372)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$0.35

Record

47%

2205-2491 (4696)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 15 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

8% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 100% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 92% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.