São Paulo FC vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 3.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 5

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$65.42

Smart Money Entry

93.1¢ → 99.6¢

+7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,937

Combined PnL+$4.57

Over4 traders

Total Value$56.03

Total Shares1,182

Combined PnL-$69.99

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 97.8¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$33.67	53% 60181-52537 (112718)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 84¢	$632.11	$705.92	+$73.81	51% 24452-23135 (47587)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 96.1¢	$617.63	$550.68	-$66.95	50% 27855-27713 (55568)
0xheavy888	Underavg 82¢	$200	$193.4	+$29.4	56% 7759-6212 (13971)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 6.4¢	$49.09	$30.6	-$18.5	49% 14392-15079 (29471)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 8.6¢	$14.8	$12.3	-$2.5	47% 11225-12583 (23808)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 18.7¢	$56.21	$12	-$44.21	50% 1182-1169 (2351)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 81¢	$12.36	$7.03	+$1.18	58% 45573-32987 (78560)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 80¢	$4	$4.8	+$0.8	52% 8633-7856 (16489)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 20.8¢	$5.92	$1.14	-$4.78	51% 1246-1188 (2434)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,503.46

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$33.67

Record

53%

60181-52537 (112718)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$632.11

Value

$705.92

PnL

+$73.81

Record

51%

24452-23135 (47587)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$617.63

Value

$550.68

PnL

-$66.95

Record

50%

27855-27713 (55568)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$200

Value

$193.4

PnL

+$29.4

Record

56%

7759-6212 (13971)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49.09

Value

$30.6

PnL

-$18.5

Record

49%

14392-15079 (29471)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.8

Value

$12.3

PnL

-$2.5

Record

47%

11225-12583 (23808)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$56.21

Value

$12

PnL

-$44.21

Record

50%

1182-1169 (2351)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$12.36

Value

$7.03

PnL

+$1.18

Record

58%

45573-32987 (78560)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$0.8

Record

52%

8633-7856 (16489)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.92

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$4.78

Record

51%

1246-1188 (2434)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.