Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (99%). 4 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

São Paulo FC vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 2.5

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (31%) · Over at 1.1¢ · $28K held · ended Nov 5

Over1¢Under99¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 31%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.2K

Combined PnL

$-10.6K

Smart Money Entry

38.9¢ → 1.1¢

-97% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Under 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$21.0K

Total Shares23,839

Combined PnL+$4.5K

Over4 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares57,314

Combined PnL$-15.1K

Under — 69%Over — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 5

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 63.3¢	$6.2K	$7.7K	+$1.4K	50% 27855-27713 (55568)
OH OhWhenTheRedsCTR	Overavg 38.9¢	$22.2K	$7.1K	$-15.1K	46% 57-68 (125)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 63.8¢	$5.0K	$6.5K	+$1.5K	51% 24452-23135 (47587)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 61.3¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$590.17	58% 45573-32987 (78560)
CA Cannae	Underavg 61.3¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$437.55	53% 16539-14712 (31251)
HI hi774c	Underavg 61¢	$1.0K	$1.5K	+$421.61	50% 4971-4900 (9871)
RN1	Underavg 77.7¢	$859.54	$945.26	+$85.72	53% 60181-52537 (112718)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 86¢	$599.95	$599.95	+$0	50% 36455-35915 (72370)
0xheavy888	Underavg 61.3¢	$275.71	$241.25	+$72.31	56% 7759-6212 (13971)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 18.5¢	$76.26	$60.64	-$15.61	47% 11225-12583 (23808)
└ Over leg	Overavg 18.5¢	$47.02	$33.01	-$14.01
└ Under leg	Underavg 91¢	$29.24	$27.63	-$1.61
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$55.31	$23.2	-$32.12	49% 14392-15079 (29471)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 41.2¢	$29.75	$9.39	-$20.36	52% 1242-1155 (2397)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 60¢	$6	$8.6	+$2.6	52% 8633-7856 (16489)
DI dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 37.2¢	$12.63	$4.42	-$8.21	47% 10417-11885 (22302)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$6,238.9

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

50%

27855-27713 (55568)

OhWhenTheRedsCTR

Over

Invested

$22,205.13

Value

$7.1K

PnL

$-15.1K

Record

46%

57-68 (125)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$5,000.47

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

51%

24452-23135 (47587)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,570.15

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$590.17

Record

58%

45573-32987 (78560)

Cannae

Under

Invested

$1,082.9

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$437.55

Record

53%

16539-14712 (31251)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$1,028.72

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$421.61

Record

50%

4971-4900 (9871)

RN1

Under

Invested

$859.54

Value

$945.26

PnL

+$85.72

Record

53%

60181-52537 (112718)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$599.95

Value

$599.95

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

36455-35915 (72370)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$275.71

Value

$241.25

PnL

+$72.31

Record

56%

7759-6212 (13971)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$76.26

Value

$60.64

PnL

-$15.61

Record

47%

11225-12583 (23808)

Both legs:

Over$47.0218.5¢-$14.01

Under$29.2491¢-$1.61

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$55.31

Value

$23.2

PnL

-$32.12

Record

49%

14392-15079 (29471)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.75

Value

$9.39

PnL

-$20.36

Record

52%

1242-1155 (2397)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$8.6

PnL

+$2.6

Record

52%

8633-7856 (16489)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.63

Value

$4.42

PnL

-$8.21

Record

47%

10417-11885 (22302)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Under 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 5

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.2%

1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4550.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

4650.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.