Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-11-04?
11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 68¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 100%
$14.5K
-$131.29
68.2¢ → 67.5¢
-1% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 11 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DV dv-pm | Noavg 68.1¢ | $5.1K | $5.1K | -$45.69 | 49% 3292-3422 (6714) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 69.1¢ | $2.8K | $2.7K | -$103.8 | 52% 1140-1038 (2178) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 68.2¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | -$20.23 | 51% 24202-22938 (47140) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 67.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$8.21 | 50% 27765-27628 (55393) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 67.7¢ | $758.59 | $754.48 | -$2.13 | 58% 45420-32909 (78329) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 67.8¢ | $670.18 | $657.43 | -$12.75 | 53% 16515-14663 (31178) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 68¢ | $604.83 | $631.52 | +$26.68 | 39% 1335-2099 (3434) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 68¢ | $572.11 | $597.35 | +$25.24 | 46% 1301-1520 (2821) |
SE sentrio | Noavg 67.7¢ | $400.79 | $393.64 | -$7.15 | 50% 25480-25186 (50666) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 68¢ | $369.41 | $385.71 | +$16.3 | 49% 14322-14999 (29321) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 69.1¢ | $16.24 | $16.69 | +$0.45 | 51% 1089-1037 (2126) |
Invested
$5,139.24
Value
$5.1K
PnL
-$45.69
Record
49%
3292-3422 (6714)
Invested
$2,781.43
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$103.8
Record
52%
1140-1038 (2178)
Invested
$2,069.43
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$20.23
Record
51%
24202-22938 (47140)
Invested
$1,252.73
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$8.21
Record
50%
27765-27628 (55393)
VeryLucky888Invested
$758.59
Value
$754.48
PnL
-$2.13
Record
58%
45420-32909 (78329)
Invested
$670.18
Value
$657.43
PnL
-$12.75
Record
53%
16515-14663 (31178)
Invested
$604.83
Value
$631.52
PnL
+$26.68
Record
39%
1335-2099 (3434)
Invested
$572.11
Value
$597.35
PnL
+$25.24
Record
46%
1301-1520 (2821)
Invested
$400.79
Value
$393.64
PnL
-$7.15
Record
50%
25480-25186 (50666)
Invested
$369.41
Value
$385.71
PnL
+$16.3
Record
49%
14322-14999 (29321)
Invested
$16.24
Value
$16.69
PnL
+$0.45
Record
51%
1089-1037 (2126)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.