Santos FC vs. SE Palmeiras: 1st Half O/U 0.5
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (88%) · Under at 100¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 88%
$12.0K
$937.76
63.8¢ → 100¢
+57% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 63.6¢ | $7.7K | $9.7K | +$1.9K | 59% 44722-31116 (75838) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 23.8¢ | $2.3K | $1.0K | $-1.2K | 54% 55806-47900 (103706) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 62.8¢ | $356.04 | $494.75 | +$138.71 | 50% 12172-12403 (24575) |
DA dashattacker | Underavg 80.1¢ | $346.9 | $359.65 | +$12.75 | 72% 2303-875 (3178) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 52.1¢ | $215.26 | $307.75 | +$92.49 | 50% 32842-32398 (65240) |
 HRTrading | Underavg 64.3¢ | $106.55 | $120.28 | +$13.73 | 53% 3186-2848 (6034) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 65¢ | $29.69 | $31.49 | +$1.81 | 59% 9444-6437 (15881) |
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100 | Underavg 69¢ | $20.7 | $14.25 | -$6.45 | 47% 4462-4936 (9398) |
Invested
$7,737.21
Value
$9.7K
PnL
+$1.9K
Record
59%
44722-31116 (75838)
RN1CTRInvested
$2,261
Value
$1.0K
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
54%
55806-47900 (103706)
Invested
$356.04
Value
$494.75
PnL
+$138.71
Record
50%
12172-12403 (24575)
Invested
$346.9
Value
$359.65
PnL
+$12.75
Record
72%
2303-875 (3178)
Invested
$215.26
Value
$307.75
PnL
+$92.49
Record
50%
32842-32398 (65240)
HRTradingInvested
$106.55
Value
$120.28
PnL
+$13.73
Record
53%
3186-2848 (6034)
poshposh<$100Invested
$29.69
Value
$31.49
PnL
+$1.81
Record
59%
9444-6437 (15881)
Invested
$20.7
Value
$14.25
PnL
-$6.45
Record
47%
4462-4936 (9398)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.