Mirassol FC vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 3.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (36%) · Under at 99¢ · $669 held · ended Nov 14

Over1¢Under99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 36%

Total Value

$669.21

Combined PnL

-$39.99

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 98.6¢

+34% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$456.44

Total Shares542

Combined PnL+$57.81

Over7 traders

Total Value$211.97

Total Shares1,605

Combined PnL-$97.8

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Underavg 70¢	$349.06	$267.62	+$37.97	54% 1497-1295 (2792)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 9¢	$189.54	$136.55	-$53	53% 2235-2015 (4250)
RN1	Underavg 82.8¢	$114.21	$127.52	+$13.31	55% 5474-4481 (9955)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 71.3¢	$53.78	$60.31	+$6.53	46% 2830-3355 (6185)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$63.95	$36.24	-$27.71	37% 1064-1797 (2861)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 19.2¢	$13.17	$13.04	-$0.13	38% 1138-1890 (3028)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 20.4¢	$13.79	$12.83	-$0.96	36% 513-930 (1443)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$19	$6	-$13	65% 638-350 (988)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$9.11	$5.97	-$3.14	37% 1043-1777 (2820)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$1.2	$1.34	+$0.14	46% 311-372 (683)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 94¢	$0.99	$0.99	+$0.01	49% 4087-4288 (8375)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$349.06

Value

$267.62

PnL

+$37.97

Record

54%

1497-1295 (2792)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$189.54

Value

$136.55

PnL

-$53

Record

53%

2235-2015 (4250)

RN1

Under

Invested

$114.21

Value

$127.52

PnL

+$13.31

Record

55%

5474-4481 (9955)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$53.78

Value

$60.31

PnL

+$6.53

Record

46%

2830-3355 (6185)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$63.95

Value

$36.24

PnL

-$27.71

Record

37%

1064-1797 (2861)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.17

Value

$13.04

PnL

-$0.13

Record

38%

1138-1890 (3028)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.79

Value

$12.83

PnL

-$0.96

Record

36%

513-930 (1443)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19

Value

PnL

-$13

Record

65%

638-350 (988)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.11

Value

$5.97

PnL

-$3.14

Record

37%

1043-1777 (2820)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.34

PnL

+$0.14

Record

46%

311-372 (683)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$0.99

Value

$0.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

4087-4288 (8375)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.