Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (77%). 5 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Mirassol FC vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 24¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 14

Over24¢Under76¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

$117.72

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 23.5¢

-55% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 77%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares7,114

Combined PnL-$34.05

Under8 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares4,361

Combined PnL+$151.77

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 53¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$32.39	50% 2560-2519 (5079)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 72.7¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$82.19	53% 2221-2002 (4223)
RN1	Underavg 64.1¢	$450.9	$517.12	+$66.22	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
Secondhandvinyl	Underavg 74¢	$477.25	$467.63	-$9.63	76% 280-89 (369)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 43¢	$203.69	$144.62	-$59.07	37% 1116-1869 (2985)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 46¢	$92.78	$87.86	+$1.33	54% 1473-1278 (2751)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 48¢	$84.48	$83.6	-$0.88	49% 4068-4262 (8330)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 49¢	$42.32	$54.84	+$12.52	37% 1035-1784 (2819)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 44.5¢	$41.55	$33.16	-$8.39	38% 87-142 (229)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$31.62	$32.55	+$0.93	55% 527-431 (958)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 48¢	$13.06	$12.92	-$0.14	42% 1051-1465 (2516)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 49.4¢	$12.35	$12.5	+$0.15	37% 1053-1783 (2836)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$2.3	$2.39	+$0.09	46% 309-368 (677)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$3,433.85

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$32.39

Record

50%

2560-2519 (5079)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,829.92

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$82.19

Record

53%

2221-2002 (4223)

RN1

Under

Invested

$450.9

Value

$517.12

PnL

+$66.22

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

Secondhandvinyl

Under

Invested

$477.25

Value

$467.63

PnL

-$9.63

Record

76%

280-89 (369)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$203.69

Value

$144.62

PnL

-$59.07

Record

37%

1116-1869 (2985)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$92.78

Value

$87.86

PnL

+$1.33

Record

54%

1473-1278 (2751)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$84.48

Value

$83.6

PnL

-$0.88

Record

49%

4068-4262 (8330)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$42.32

Value

$54.84

PnL

+$12.52

Record

37%

1035-1784 (2819)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.55

Value

$33.16

PnL

-$8.39

Record

38%

87-142 (229)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$31.62

Value

$32.55

PnL

+$0.93

Record

55%

527-431 (958)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$13.06

Value

$12.92

PnL

-$0.14

Record

42%

1051-1465 (2516)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$12.35

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$0.15

Record

37%

1053-1783 (2836)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.39

PnL

+$0.09

Record

46%

309-368 (677)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 77%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.4%

23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$293.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

393.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.