Mirassol FC vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 1.5

14 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Under (82%) · Under at 74¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 14

Over27¢Under73¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$484.81

Smart Money Entry

43.4¢ → 73.5¢

+70% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

14 of 17 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over27%

Under74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under14 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares11,819

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,895

Combined PnL-$618.08

Under — 82%Over — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+68 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 47.7¢	$1.9K	$2.7K	+$846.49	55% 5474-4481 (9955)
SH Shimi1234CTR	Overavg 54.3¢	$2.5K	$1.9K	-$589.48	38% 12-20 (32)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 58.3¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$256.43	53% 2235-2015 (4250)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 52.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$72.76	49% 4087-4288 (8375)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.4¢	$541.9	$589.35	+$47.45
└ Over leg	Overavg 41¢	$518.96	$544.27	+$25.32
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 32.4¢	$888.22	$960.3	+$72.08	36% 513-930 (1443)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 33.7¢	$391.29	$405.97	+$14.68	38% 1068-1766 (2834)
alpheclabs2	Underavg 43.8¢	$428.51	$342.34	-$86.18	46% 311-372 (683)
VE Venusian	Underavg 46¢	$261.51	$198.88	-$62.63	37% 1048-1799 (2847)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 76¢	$216.91	$188.37	-$28.54	55% 522-427 (949)
FO foooool	Underavg 33.9¢	$70.06	$116.84	+$46.78	38% 87-142 (229)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 45¢	$90	$70	-$20	38% 1138-1890 (3028)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 30.7¢	$50.42	$57.56	+$7.14	37% 1064-1797 (2861)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 30.3¢	$29.47	$56.83	+$27.36	37% 1043-1777 (2820)
MO mouzsynapse<$100	Underavg 57¢	$18.55	$18.72	+$0.16	40% 130-198 (328)
NO NotJump<$100	Underavg 57¢	$11.4	$11.5	+$0.1	52% 895-837 (1732)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Overavg 66¢	$3.96	$3.9	-$0.06	51% 76-72 (148)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Underavg 58¢	$3.45	$3.48	+$0.03	59% 724-498 (1222)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Underavg 24¢	$1.01	$1.47	+$0.46	33% 106-214 (320)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,851

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$846.49

Record

55%

5474-4481 (9955)

Shimi1234CTR

Over

Invested

$2,500

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$589.48

Record

38%

12-20 (32)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,070.22

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$256.43

Record

53%

2235-2015 (4250)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,060.86

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$72.76

Record

49%

4087-4288 (8375)

Both legs:

Under$541.952.4¢+$47.45

Over$518.9641¢+$25.32

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$888.22

Value

$960.3

PnL

+$72.08

Record

36%

513-930 (1443)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$391.29

Value

$405.97

PnL

+$14.68

Record

38%

1068-1766 (2834)

alpheclabs2

Under

Invested

$428.51

Value

$342.34

PnL

-$86.18

Record

46%

311-372 (683)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$261.51

Value

$198.88

PnL

-$62.63

Record

37%

1048-1799 (2847)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$216.91

Value

$188.37

PnL

-$28.54

Record

55%

522-427 (949)

foooool

Under

Invested

$70.06

Value

$116.84

PnL

+$46.78

Record

38%

87-142 (229)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$90

Value

$70

PnL

-$20

Record

38%

1138-1890 (3028)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$50.42

Value

$57.56

PnL

+$7.14

Record

37%

1064-1797 (2861)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$29.47

Value

$56.83

PnL

+$27.36

Record

37%

1043-1777 (2820)

mouzsynapse<$100

Under

Invested

$18.55

Value

$18.72

PnL

+$0.16

Record

40%

130-198 (328)

NotJump<$100

Under

Invested

$11.4

Value

$11.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

895-837 (1732)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.96

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$0.06

Record

51%

76-72 (148)

lonmi2511<$100

Under

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.48

PnL

+$0.03

Record

59%

724-498 (1222)

Oddstorm<$100

Under

Invested

$1.01

Value

$1.47

PnL

+$0.46

Record

33%

106-214 (320)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

14 of 17 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+68 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.