Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (62%). 11 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Mirassol FC vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 0.5

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (85%) · Under at 39¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Over62¢Under38¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 85%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$465.27

Smart Money Entry

23.9¢ → 38.5¢

+61% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors Over 62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over62%

Under39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares6,400

Combined PnL+$467.01

Over2 traders

Total Value$34.26

Total Shares54

Combined PnL-$1.74

Under — 85%Over — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 65.7¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$244.05	53% 2235-2015 (4250)
└ Over leg	Overavg 65.7¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$48.78
└ Under leg	Underavg 21.1¢	$399.89	$692.72	+$292.84
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 62¢	$585.65	$685.15	+$99.51	55% 5474-4481 (9955)
└ Over leg	Overavg 62¢	$488.95	$492.89	+$3.94
└ Under leg	Underavg 18.9¢	$96.69	$192.26	+$95.56
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 23.2¢	$423.78	$603.78	+$180	36% 513-930 (1443)
PE Peupo012CTR	Underavg 37.2¢	$489.4	$480.26	-$9.14	— 1-4 (5)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 16.8¢	$249.58	$408.75	+$159.17	38% 87-142 (229)
└ Under leg	Underavg 16.8¢	$139.55	$303.66	+$164.11
└ Over leg	Overavg 66.5¢	$110.03	$105.09	-$4.94
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 13.8¢	$177.76	$302.55	+$124.79	49% 4087-4288 (8375)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 23.8¢	$149.98	$230.03	+$80.05	38% 1068-1766 (2834)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 70.6¢	$134.03	$161.02	+$27	38% 1138-1890 (3028)
└ Over leg	Overavg 70.6¢	$108.43	$95.24	-$13.19
└ Under leg	Underavg 14.8¢	$25.6	$65.78	+$40.18
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 32.4¢	$127.78	$140.12	+$12.34	37% 1043-1777 (2820)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 13.2¢	$39.57	$76.29	+$36.72	37% 1064-1797 (2861)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 18.6¢	$37.04	$72.78	+$35.73	37% 1048-1799 (2847)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$51.9	$53.03	+$1.13	40% 130-198 (328)
ZaiZoiBele<$100	Overavg 66¢	$32.27	$30.56	-$1.71	24% 76-235 (311)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$24.61	$26.22	+$1.61	59% 724-498 (1222)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$5.41	$9.92	+$4.51	47% 974-1105 (2079)
SecondhandvinylCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$5.02	$4.29	-$0.73	76% 285-89 (374)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Overavg 73¢	$3.72	$3.7	-$0.03	51% 76-72 (148)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,827.09

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$244.05

Record

53%

2235-2015 (4250)

Both legs:

Over$1,427.265.7¢-$48.78

Under$399.8921.1¢+$292.84

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$585.65

Value

$685.15

PnL

+$99.51

Record

55%

5474-4481 (9955)

Both legs:

Over$488.9562¢+$3.94

Under$96.6918.9¢+$95.56

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$423.78

Value

$603.78

PnL

+$180

Record

36%

513-930 (1443)

Peupo012CTR

Under

Invested

$489.4

Value

$480.26

PnL

-$9.14

Record

—

1-4 (5)

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$249.58

Value

$408.75

PnL

+$159.17

Record

38%

87-142 (229)

Both legs:

Under$139.5516.8¢+$164.11

Over$110.0366.5¢-$4.94

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$177.76

Value

$302.55

PnL

+$124.79

Record

49%

4087-4288 (8375)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$149.98

Value

$230.03

PnL

+$80.05

Record

38%

1068-1766 (2834)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$134.03

Value

$161.02

PnL

+$27

Record

38%

1138-1890 (3028)

Both legs:

Over$108.4370.6¢-$13.19

Under$25.614.8¢+$40.18

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$127.78

Value

$140.12

PnL

+$12.34

Record

37%

1043-1777 (2820)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$39.57

Value

$76.29

PnL

+$36.72

Record

37%

1064-1797 (2861)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$37.04

Value

$72.78

PnL

+$35.73

Record

37%

1048-1799 (2847)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$51.9

Value

$53.03

PnL

+$1.13

Record

40%

130-198 (328)

ZaiZoiBele<$100

Over

Invested

$32.27

Value

$30.56

PnL

-$1.71

Record

24%

76-235 (311)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.61

Value

$26.22

PnL

+$1.61

Record

59%

724-498 (1222)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.41

Value

$9.92

PnL

+$4.51

Record

47%

974-1105 (2079)

SecondhandvinylCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.02

Value

$4.29

PnL

-$0.73

Record

76%

285-89 (374)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Over

Invested

$3.72

Value

$3.7

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

76-72 (148)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 39%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors Over 62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.