Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 4 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-11-14?

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 45¢ · $713 held · ends Nov 14

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$713.19

Combined PnL

$16.13

Smart Money Entry

45.8¢ → 44.5¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$414.37

Total Shares882

Combined PnL+$10.49

No8 traders

Total Value$298.82

Total Shares562

Combined PnL+$5.64

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 45.1¢	$291.34	$303.74	+$12.4	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 53¢	$118.99	$118.99	+$0	37% 960-1662 (2622)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 51¢	$78.06	$81.12	+$3.06	36% 933-1644 (2577)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 46.9¢	$63.35	$63.45	+$0.1	56% 463-370 (833)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 51.8¢	$50.56	$51.69	+$1.13	30% 335-776 (1111)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$46.2	$44.31	-$1.89	46% 2653-3138 (5791)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 51¢	$20.82	$21.63	+$0.82	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 53¢	$12.92	$13.53	+$0.61	36% 948-1669 (2617)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 53¢	$9.34	$9.34	+$0	37% 970-1635 (2605)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$2.99	$2.87	-$0.12	51% 70-66 (136)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 56¢	$1.27	$1.28	+$0.01	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 55¢	$1.22	$1.23	+$0.01	35% 440-800 (1240)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$291.34

Value

$303.74

PnL

+$12.4

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

LightParadox

Invested

$118.99

Value

$118.99

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$78.06

Value

$81.12

PnL

+$3.06

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.35

Value

$63.45

PnL

+$0.1

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$50.56

Value

$51.69

PnL

+$1.13

Record

30%

335-776 (1111)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.2

Value

$44.31

PnL

-$1.89

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$20.82

Value

$21.63

PnL

+$0.82

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$12.92

Value

$13.53

PnL

+$0.61

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$9.34

Value

$9.34

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.99

Value

$2.87

PnL

-$0.12

Record

51%

70-66 (136)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$1.27

Value

$1.28

PnL

+$0.01

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$1.22

Value

$1.23

PnL

+$0.01

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.