Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Mirassol FC vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 44¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Yes44¢No56¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$99.82

Smart Money Entry

36.6¢ → 44¢

+20% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,485

Combined PnL+$98.39

No3 traders

Total Value$100.95

Total Shares146

Combined PnL+$1.43

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 41.7¢	$424.47	$427.2	+$2.73	37% 1064-1797 (2861)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 33.5¢	$243.37	$322.88	+$79.51	37% 1043-1777 (2820)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 58.1¢	$264.8	$284.12	+$19.32	56% 4074-3181 (7255)
└ No leg	Noavg 58.1¢	$223.24	$217.16	-$6.08
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27¢	$41.56	$66.96	+$25.4
NO NotJump<$100	Noavg 66.9¢	$76.24	$78.66	+$2.42	52% 895-837 (1732)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.7¢	$61.62	$62.24	+$0.62	37% 1048-1799 (2847)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.8¢	$36.2	$42.31	+$6.11	38% 1068-1766 (2834)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.2¢	$30.11	$37.33	+$7.22	31% 376-824 (1200)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$35.14	$36.31	+$1.17	36% 513-930 (1443)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 38.6¢	$30.74	$31.47	+$0.73	49% 4087-4288 (8375)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$23.8	$24.11	+$0.31	38% 87-142 (229)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$23.8	$23.8	+$0	46% 2830-3355 (6185)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 73¢	$19.93	$18.84	-$1.09	51% 76-72 (148)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 67¢	$3.35	$3.45	+$0.1	44% 400-500 (900)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$424.47

Value

$427.2

PnL

+$2.73

Record

37%

1064-1797 (2861)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$243.37

Value

$322.88

PnL

+$79.51

Record

37%

1043-1777 (2820)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$264.8

Value

$284.12

PnL

+$19.32

Record

56%

4074-3181 (7255)

Both legs:

No$223.2458.1¢-$6.08

Yes$41.5627¢+$25.4

NotJump<$100

Invested

$76.24

Value

$78.66

PnL

+$2.42

Record

52%

895-837 (1732)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.62

Value

$62.24

PnL

+$0.62

Record

37%

1048-1799 (2847)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.2

Value

$42.31

PnL

+$6.11

Record

38%

1068-1766 (2834)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.11

Value

$37.33

PnL

+$7.22

Record

31%

376-824 (1200)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.14

Value

$36.31

PnL

+$1.17

Record

36%

513-930 (1443)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.74

Value

$31.47

PnL

+$0.73

Record

49%

4087-4288 (8375)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.8

Value

$24.11

PnL

+$0.31

Record

38%

87-142 (229)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.8

Value

$23.8

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

2830-3355 (6185)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$19.93

Value

$18.84

PnL

-$1.09

Record

51%

76-72 (148)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.45

PnL

+$0.1

Record

44%

400-500 (900)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.