Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-11-14?

13 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (81%) · No at 71¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Yes30¢No70¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 81%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$9.09

Smart Money Entry

71.9¢ → 70.5¢

-2% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 16 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,554

Combined PnL-$9.35

Yes3 traders

Total Value$19.36

Total Shares67

Combined PnL+$0.26

No — 81%Yes — 19%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 74¢	$451.91	$451.97	+$0.06	49% 4068-4262 (8330)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 70¢	$163.33	$164.5	+$1.17	36% 510-915 (1425)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 73.7¢	$164.31	$157.24	-$7.07	53% 2221-2002 (4223)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Yesavg 29.4¢	$97.23	$98.39	+$1.16	56% 4072-3180 (7252)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.4¢	$51.27	$51.43	+$0.16
└ No leg	Noavg 69¢	$45.96	$46.96	+$1
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 70.5¢	$99.26	$95.74	-$3.51	51% 76-72 (148)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 69.5¢	$73.95	$73.98	+$0.03	37% 1053-1783 (2836)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 69¢	$52.84	$53.23	+$0.38	38% 87-142 (229)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 69¢	$47.46	$47.12	-$0.34	38% 1060-1756 (2816)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 69.9¢	$46.11	$46.54	+$0.43	37% 1035-1784 (2819)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 74¢	$35.4	$35.17	-$0.23	42% 1051-1465 (2516)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 71¢	$31.78	$32	+$0.22	59% 3799-2617 (6416)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 69¢	$22.2	$22.04	-$0.16	37% 1030-1762 (2792)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 75¢	$9.96	$9.63	-$0.33	55% 527-431 (958)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$9.4	$9.56	+$0.16	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$8.4	$8.4	+$0	38% 395-632 (1027)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 74¢	$8.79	$3.04	+$0.01	54% 1473-1278 (2751)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$1.3	$1.4	+$0.1	48% 2212-2378 (4590)

Flaznorp

Invested

$451.91

Value

$451.97

PnL

+$0.06

Record

49%

4068-4262 (8330)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$163.33

Value

$164.5

PnL

+$1.17

Record

36%

510-915 (1425)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$164.31

Value

$157.24

PnL

-$7.07

Record

53%

2221-2002 (4223)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$97.23

Value

$98.39

PnL

+$1.16

Record

56%

4072-3180 (7252)

Both legs:

Yes$51.2729.4¢+$0.16

No$45.9669¢+$1

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$99.26

Value

$95.74

PnL

-$3.51

Record

51%

76-72 (148)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$73.95

Value

$73.98

PnL

+$0.03

Record

37%

1053-1783 (2836)

foooool<$100

Invested

$52.84

Value

$53.23

PnL

+$0.38

Record

38%

87-142 (229)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$47.46

Value

$47.12

PnL

-$0.34

Record

38%

1060-1756 (2816)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$46.11

Value

$46.54

PnL

+$0.43

Record

37%

1035-1784 (2819)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$35.4

Value

$35.17

PnL

-$0.23

Record

42%

1051-1465 (2516)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$31.78

Value

$32

PnL

+$0.22

Record

59%

3799-2617 (6416)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$22.2

Value

$22.04

PnL

-$0.16

Record

37%

1030-1762 (2792)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$9.96

Value

$9.63

PnL

-$0.33

Record

55%

527-431 (958)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.56

PnL

+$0.16

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

395-632 (1027)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$8.79

Value

$3.04

PnL

+$0.01

Record

54%

1473-1278 (2751)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

2212-2378 (4590)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 16 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.