Mirassol FC vs. CA Mineiro: Both Teams to Score

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 75¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes26¢No74¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$433.24

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 74.5¢

+54% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,889

Combined PnL+$446.86

Yes2 traders

Total Value$107.79

Total Shares237

Combined PnL-$13.61

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 48¢	$496.49	$538.22	+$41.73	55% 5474-4481 (9955)
LI Limousin	Noavg 47.3¢	$333.87	$535.96	+$202.09	37% 1043-1777 (2820)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 47.1¢	$271.85	$438.79	+$166.94	37% 1064-1797 (2861)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Yesavg 39.6¢	$272.24	$219.09	-$53.15	38% 87-142 (229)
└ No leg	Noavg 64.8¢	$95.37	$111.93	+$16.57
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39.6¢	$176.87	$107.16	-$69.71
VeryLucky888	Noavg 41¢	$100.89	$127.96	+$27.07	54% 1497-1295 (2792)
SU suntoriARB<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$126.66	$106.37	-$20.29	46% 2830-3355 (6185)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59¢	$98.09	$79.84	-$18.25
└ No leg	Noavg 56¢	$28.57	$26.53	-$2.04
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Yesavg 53¢	$106.9	$97.51	-$9.39	38% 1138-1890 (3028)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 72¢	$80.64	$80.08	-$0.56	49% 4087-4288 (8375)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 46¢	$44.38	$50.17	+$5.79	36% 513-930 (1443)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 63¢	$45.79	$48.32	+$2.53	39% 587-913 (1500)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 49.1¢	$21.71	$22.98	+$1.28	37% 1048-1799 (2847)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 38.8¢	$14.5	$10.28	-$4.22	51% 76-72 (148)

RN1

Invested

$496.49

Value

$538.22

PnL

+$41.73

Record

55%

5474-4481 (9955)

Limousin

Invested

$333.87

Value

$535.96

PnL

+$202.09

Record

37%

1043-1777 (2820)

LightParadox

Invested

$271.85

Value

$438.79

PnL

+$166.94

Record

37%

1064-1797 (2861)

fooooolARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$272.24

Value

$219.09

PnL

-$53.15

Record

38%

87-142 (229)

Both legs:

No$95.3764.8¢+$16.57

Yes$176.8739.6¢-$69.71

VeryLucky888

Invested

$100.89

Value

$127.96

PnL

+$27.07

Record

54%

1497-1295 (2792)

suntoriARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$126.66

Value

$106.37

PnL

-$20.29

Record

46%

2830-3355 (6185)

Both legs:

Invested

$106.9

Value

$97.51

PnL

-$9.39

Record

38%

1138-1890 (3028)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$80.64

Value

$80.08

PnL

-$0.56

Record

49%

4087-4288 (8375)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$44.38

Value

$50.17

PnL

+$5.79

Record

36%

513-930 (1443)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$45.79

Value

$48.32

PnL

+$2.53

Record

39%

587-913 (1500)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$21.71

Value

$22.98

PnL

+$1.28

Record

37%

1048-1799 (2847)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.5

Value

$10.28

PnL

-$4.22

Record

51%

76-72 (148)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.