Fluminense FC vs. SC Internacional: 1st Half O/U 0.5

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 100¢ · $836 held · ended Oct 28

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 86%

Total Value

$835.76

Combined PnL

$239.23

Smart Money Entry

61.9¢ → 100¢

+62% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$824.87

Total Shares896

Combined PnL+$242.97

Over1 trader

Total Value$10

Total Shares19

Combined PnL-$3.74

Under — 86%Over — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 53.1¢	$229.08	$416.86	+$187.78	59% 44722-31116 (75838)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 65.3¢	$206.84	$266.13	+$59.29	72% 2303-875 (3178)
ZaiZoiBele<$100	Underavg 99¢	$56.99	$53.54	-$3.45	80% 4973-1230 (6203)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 50.1¢	$32.44	$48.92	+$16.48	50% 32842-32398 (65240)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 94¢	$49.78	$31.27	-$18.51	50% 12172-12403 (24575)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 45.4¢	$13.74	$10	-$3.74	54% 55806-47900 (103706)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 83¢	$6.77	$8.15	+$1.38	59% 9444-6437 (15881)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$229.08

Value

$416.86

PnL

+$187.78

Record

59%

44722-31116 (75838)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$206.84

Value

$266.13

PnL

+$59.29

Record

72%

2303-875 (3178)

ZaiZoiBele<$100

Under

Invested

$56.99

Value

$53.54

PnL

-$3.45

Record

80%

4973-1230 (6203)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$32.44

Value

$48.92

PnL

+$16.48

Record

50%

32842-32398 (65240)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$49.78

Value

$31.27

PnL

-$18.51

Record

50%

12172-12403 (24575)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.74

Value

$10

PnL

-$3.74

Record

54%

55806-47900 (103706)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$6.77

Value

$8.15

PnL

+$1.38

Record

59%

9444-6437 (15881)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.