Exact Score: Cruzeiro EC 1 - 0 EC Bahia?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $457 held · ended Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$456.92
$11.46
91.6¢ → 100¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 91¢ | $199.86 | $198.61 | -$1.25 | 51% 37681-36912 (74593) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 94.1¢ | $123.03 | $130.67 | +$7.64 | 51% 25823-24512 (50335) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $91 | $57.53 | -$1.62 | 58% 46729-33688 (80417) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $36.66 | $36.66 | +$0 | 49% 14720-15397 (30117) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $26.75 | $33.44 | +$6.69 | 53% 61400-53704 (115104) |
Invested
$199.86
Value
$198.61
PnL
-$1.25
Record
51%
37681-36912 (74593)
Invested
$123.03
Value
$130.67
PnL
+$7.64
Record
51%
25823-24512 (50335)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$91
Value
$57.53
PnL
-$1.62
Record
58%
46729-33688 (80417)
Invested
$36.66
Value
$36.66
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
14720-15397 (30117)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$26.75
Value
$33.44
PnL
+$6.69
Record
53%
61400-53704 (115104)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.