Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Coritiba FBC vs. Mirassol FC end in a draw?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 30¢ · $1K held · ended Sep 5
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$485.65
54.9¢ → 29.5¢
-46% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
86h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 59.5¢ | $1.5K | $754.97 | -$621.87 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Yesavg 42.4¢ | $246.05 | $178.28 | -$67.77 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 42.4¢ | $158.01 | $109.88 | -$48.14 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 90.7¢ | $88.04 | $68.41 | -$19.64 | |
PT PT-S7CTR | Yesavg 29.2¢ | $142.24 | $124.35 | -$11.88 | 49% 3284-3450 (6734) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 46.2¢ | $56.24 | $82.85 | +$144.13 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Noavg 66.1¢ | $4.55 | $3.53 | +$3.97 | 57% 19479-14427 (33906) |
Invested
$1,528.44
Value
$754.97
PnL
-$621.87
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$246.05
Value
$178.28
PnL
-$67.77
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Both legs:
Invested
$142.24
Value
$124.35
PnL
-$11.88
Record
49%
3284-3450 (6734)
RN1<$100Invested
$56.24
Value
$82.85
PnL
+$144.13
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$4.55
Value
$3.53
PnL
+$3.97
Record
57%
19479-14427 (33906)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.