Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (69%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-11-14?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 32¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Yes69¢No31¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$55.75

Smart Money Entry

33.6¢ → 31.5¢

-6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes69%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$563.54

Total Shares1,803

Combined PnL-$45.74

Yes6 traders

Total Value$630.06

Total Shares920

Combined PnL-$10.01

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 33.8¢	$525.62	$482.9	-$42.71	49% 3807-3970 (7777)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 66.9¢	$490.9	$368.06	-$12.35	53% 1340-1169 (2509)
Rafifa<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$100	$99.28	-$0.72	— 4-5 (9)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$73.4	$72.27	-$1.13	42% 990-1359 (2349)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$66.67	$68.16	+$1.49	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$38.19	$39.05	+$0.86	48% 286-304 (590)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 66.9¢	$35.76	$36.62	+$0.86	56% 461-367 (828)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$19.04	$18.9	-$0.14	46% 2602-3088 (5690)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$10.26	$8.37	-$1.89	48% 2066-2225 (4291)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$525.62

Value

$482.9

PnL

-$42.71

Record

49%

3807-3970 (7777)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$490.9

Value

$368.06

PnL

-$12.35

Record

53%

1340-1169 (2509)

Rafifa<$100

Yes

Invested

$100

Value

$99.28

PnL

-$0.72

Record

—

4-5 (9)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$73.4

Value

$72.27

PnL

-$1.13

Record

42%

990-1359 (2349)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.67

Value

$68.16

PnL

+$1.49

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.19

Value

$39.05

PnL

+$0.86

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.76

Value

$36.62

PnL

+$0.86

Record

56%

461-367 (828)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.04

Value

$18.9

PnL

-$0.14

Record

46%

2602-3088 (5690)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$10.26

Value

$8.37

PnL

-$1.89

Record

48%

2066-2225 (4291)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 32%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.