Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 4.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 79¢ · $371 held · ended Nov 14

Over22¢Under78¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$370.99

Combined PnL

-$13.12

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 78.5¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over22%

Under79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$270.66

Total Shares343

Combined PnL-$3.96

Over6 traders

Total Value$100.33

Total Shares557

Combined PnL-$9.16

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Underavg 81.5¢	$157.89	$153.13	-$4.77	56% 541-433 (974)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 78¢	$96.98	$97.68	+$0.7	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 20.2¢	$74.86	$61.19	-$13.67	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
KY Kyn008CTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$22.5	$26.25	+$3.75	41% 150-217 (367)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 79¢	$15.8	$15.9	+$0.1	53% 2249-2030 (4279)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$4.38	$4.38	+$0	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$3.9	$4.31	+$0.41	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 79¢	$3.95	$3.95	+$0	41% 708-1019 (1727)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 19.7¢	$2.95	$3.15	+$0.2	48% 2245-2407 (4652)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$0.9	$1.05	+$0.15	42% 1060-1490 (2550)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$157.89

Value

$153.13

PnL

-$4.77

Record

56%

541-433 (974)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$96.98

Value

$97.68

PnL

+$0.7

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$74.86

Value

$61.19

PnL

-$13.67

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

Kyn008CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.5

Value

$26.25

PnL

+$3.75

Record

41%

150-217 (367)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$15.8

Value

$15.9

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

2249-2030 (4279)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.38

Value

$4.38

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.9

Value

$4.31

PnL

+$0.41

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$3.95

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

708-1019 (1727)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.95

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

2245-2407 (4652)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.9

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$0.15

Record

42%

1060-1490 (2550)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.