Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 3.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 69¢ · $963 held · ended Nov 14

Over31¢Under69¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

Total Value

$962.85

Combined PnL

-$23.63

Smart Money Entry

64.9¢ → 69¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over31%

Under69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$682.71

Total Shares1,042

Combined PnL-$3.76

Over6 traders

Total Value$280.14

Total Shares804

Combined PnL-$19.87

Under — 45%Over — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 66.8¢	$381.64	$385.08	+$3.44	53% 2249-2030 (4279)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 62.7¢	$277.57	$266.89	-$7.39	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 36.9¢	$189.06	$166.69	-$22.37	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$71.36	$71.36	+$0	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 63.9¢	$39.99	$24.21	+$0	46% 2852-3388 (6240)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 35.2¢	$17.93	$19.87	+$1.94	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$13.06	$13.4	+$0.34	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$6.09	$6.09	+$0	35% 520-947 (1467)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 62¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	41% 708-1019 (1727)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$2.52	$2.73	+$0.21	55% 547-442 (989)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 51¢	$1.39	$1.53	+$0.14	38% 1175-1954 (3129)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$381.64

Value

$385.08

PnL

+$3.44

Record

53%

2249-2030 (4279)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$277.57

Value

$266.89

PnL

-$7.39

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$189.06

Value

$166.69

PnL

-$22.37

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$71.36

Value

$71.36

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$39.99

Value

$24.21

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

2852-3388 (6240)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.93

Value

$19.87

PnL

+$1.94

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.06

Value

$13.4

PnL

+$0.34

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.09

Value

$6.09

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

520-947 (1467)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$4.95

Value

PnL

+$0.05

Record

41%

708-1019 (1727)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.52

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.21

Record

55%

547-442 (989)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$1.39

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$0.14

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.