Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 1.5

2 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (13%) · Over at 77¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Over77¢Under23¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 13%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$205.14

Smart Money Entry

84¢ → 77¢

-8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 15 top traders (13%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over77%

Under23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,274

Combined PnL-$228.21

Under13 traders

Total Value$512.44

Total Shares2,969

Combined PnL+$23.06

Over — 13%Under — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 84¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$228.48	45% 277-332 (609)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 16¢	$188.13	$193.55	+$5.42	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 16¢	$149.14	$153.8	+$4.66	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 16.3¢	$78.57	$99.07	+$20.5	47% 985-1122 (2107)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$20	$16	-$4	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$15	$15.47	+$0.47	39% 95-150 (245)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 19.9¢	$10.66	$11	+$0.34	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 80.5¢	$8.9	$9.17	+$0.27	41% 708-1019 (1727)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 20.6¢	$10.37	$7.29	-$3.08	53% 2249-2030 (4279)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$6.66	$5.89	-$0.77	46% 2852-3388 (6240)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$4.69	$4.57	-$0.12	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 21.6¢	$2.46	$2.45	-$0.01	38% 1094-1794 (2888)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$1.9	$1.6	-$0.3	42% 1060-1490 (2550)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 12¢	$1.2	$1.15	-$0.05	45% 717-880 (1597)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$0.6	$0.61	+$0.01	35% 520-947 (1467)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$2,741.76

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$228.48

Record

45%

277-332 (609)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$188.13

Value

$193.55

PnL

+$5.42

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$149.14

Value

$153.8

PnL

+$4.66

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$78.57

Value

$99.07

PnL

+$20.5

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$16

PnL

-$4

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15

Value

$15.47

PnL

+$0.47

Record

39%

95-150 (245)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.66

Value

$11

PnL

+$0.34

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$8.9

Value

$9.17

PnL

+$0.27

Record

41%

708-1019 (1727)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.37

Value

$7.29

PnL

-$3.08

Record

53%

2249-2030 (4279)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.66

Value

$5.89

PnL

-$0.77

Record

46%

2852-3388 (6240)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.69

Value

$4.57

PnL

-$0.12

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.46

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.01

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$0.3

Record

42%

1060-1490 (2550)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$0.05

Record

45%

717-880 (1597)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.61

PnL

+$0.01

Record

35%

520-947 (1467)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 15 top traders (13%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.