Spread: CR Vasco da Gama (-1.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (67%) · Associação Chapecoense de Futebol at 63¢ · $605 held · ended Nov 14

CR Vasco da Gama37¢Associação Chapecoense de Futebol63¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol

Consensus Traders

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 67%

Total Value

$605.33

Combined PnL

-$18.03

Smart Money Entry

55.4¢ → 63¢

+14% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralAssociação Chapecoense de Futebol at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

CR Vasco da Gama37%

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol6 traders

Total Value$495.06

Total Shares851

Combined PnL+$1.91

CR Vasco da Gama3 traders

Total Value$110.26

Total Shares297

Combined PnL-$19.94

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol — 67%CR Vasco da Gama — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Associação Chapecoense de Futebol. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAssociação Chapecoense de Futebol 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedAssociação Chapecoense de Futebol 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
polaroid14	Associação Chapecoense de Futebolavg 55¢	$289.3	$291.93	+$2.63	32% 8-17 (25)
VeryLucky888	Associação Chapecoense de Futebolavg 55¢	$164.86	$144.46	+$2.14	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
SU suntoriCTR	CR Vasco da Gamaavg 45¢	$104.75	$84.96	-$19.79	46% 2852-3388 (6240)
DV dv-pm<$100	Associação Chapecoense de Futebolavg 55¢	$25.63	$25.63	+$0	46% 37-44 (81)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Associação Chapecoense de Futebolavg 62¢	$27.73	$25.57	-$2.16	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	CR Vasco da Gamaavg 39.4¢	$22.57	$22.35	-$0.22	53% 2249-2030 (4279)
SE sentrio<$100	Associação Chapecoense de Futebolavg 62¢	$5.32	$4.72	-$0.6	42% 1060-1490 (2550)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	CR Vasco da Gamaavg 44¢	$2.88	$2.95	+$0.07	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Associação Chapecoense de Futebolavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.75	-$0.1	41% 708-1019 (1727)

polaroid14

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol

Invested

$289.3

Value

$291.93

PnL

+$2.63

Record

32%

8-17 (25)

VeryLucky888

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol

Invested

$164.86

Value

$144.46

PnL

+$2.14

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

suntoriCTR

CR Vasco da Gama

Invested

$104.75

Value

$84.96

PnL

-$19.79

Record

46%

2852-3388 (6240)

dv-pm<$100

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol

Invested

$25.63

Value

$25.63

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

37-44 (81)

Flaznorp<$100

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol

Invested

$27.73

Value

$25.57

PnL

-$2.16

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

CR Vasco da Gama

Invested

$22.57

Value

$22.35

PnL

-$0.22

Record

53%

2249-2030 (4279)

sentrio<$100

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol

Invested

$5.32

Value

$4.72

PnL

-$0.6

Record

42%

1060-1490 (2550)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

CR Vasco da Gama

Invested

$2.88

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$0.07

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

ameisgoat11<$100

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$0.1

Record

41%

708-1019 (1727)

Research grade

NeutralAssociação Chapecoense de Futebol at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Associação Chapecoense de Futebol. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAssociação Chapecoense de Futebol 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedAssociação Chapecoense de Futebol 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Associação Chapecoense de Futebol wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.