Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Vasco da Gama: 1st Half O/U 1.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (58%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $244 held · ended Nov 14

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 58%

Total Value

$243.55

Combined PnL

$18.55

Smart Money Entry

20.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$160.85

Total Shares706

Combined PnL+$15.88

Under5 traders

Total Value$82.69

Total Shares108

Combined PnL+$2.68

Over — 58%Under — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 20.7¢	$69.37	$82.07	+$12.7	35% 520-947 (1467)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 64.8¢	$53.32	$56.53	+$3.21	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$39.49	$39.49	-$0	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 38.8¢	$12.33	$11.77	-$0.56	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Underavg 59¢	$9.9	$11.24	+$1.34	59% 728-499 (1227)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$7.46	$9.86	+$2.4	47% 985-1122 (2107)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$9.75	$9.75	+$0	38% 1094-1794 (2888)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Underavg 72¢	$9.95	$8.71	-$1.24	50% 168-165 (333)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 2¢	$3.4	$4.25	+$0.85	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$3.18	$3.67	+$0.49	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
SM smithagent<$100	Underavg 67¢	$3.35	$3.15	-$0.2	45% 717-880 (1597)
dips.<$100	Underavg 72¢	$3.5	$3.06	-$0.44	47% 1041-1174 (2215)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$69.37

Value

$82.07

PnL

+$12.7

Record

35%

520-947 (1467)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$53.32

Value

$56.53

PnL

+$3.21

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.49

Value

$39.49

PnL

-$0

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.33

Value

$11.77

PnL

-$0.56

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

lonmi2511<$100

Under

Invested

$9.9

Value

$11.24

PnL

+$1.34

Record

59%

728-499 (1227)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.46

Value

$9.86

PnL

+$2.4

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.75

Value

$9.75

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Under

Invested

$9.95

Value

$8.71

PnL

-$1.24

Record

50%

168-165 (333)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.4

Value

$4.25

PnL

+$0.85

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.18

Value

$3.67

PnL

+$0.49

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

smithagent<$100

Under

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$0.2

Record

45%

717-880 (1597)

dips.<$100

Under

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.06

PnL

-$0.44

Record

47%

1041-1174 (2215)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.