Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Vasco da Gama: 1st Half O/U 0.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $927 held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$926.58

Combined PnL

-$652.4

Smart Money Entry

35.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$490.88

Total Shares3,518

Combined PnL-$757.61

Over5 traders

Total Value$435

Total Shares442

Combined PnL+$105.21

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 34¢	$295.74	$260.78	-$34.96	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
RN1CTR	Underavg 32.9¢	$250.06	$229.15	-$20.91	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 54.7¢	$116.02	$176.18	+$60.16	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
ARTEM-DZYUBA	Overavg 99.1¢	$138.42	$139.05	+$0.63	83% 802-165 (967)
dips.<$100	Overavg 56.2¢	$34.81	$49.22	+$14.32	47% 1041-1174 (2215)
LonnieHawkinss<$100	Overavg 38.3¢	$18.55	$47.43	+$28.88	53% 35-31 (66)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 72¢	$21.91	$23.13	+$1.22	55% 547-442 (989)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 37.5¢	$327.98	$0.44	-$327.55	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 36.5¢	$213.39	$0.29	-$213.1	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 36.6¢	$161.33	$0.22	-$161.1	38% 1094-1794 (2888)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$295.74

Value

$260.78

PnL

-$34.96

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$250.06

Value

$229.15

PnL

-$20.91

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$116.02

Value

$176.18

PnL

+$60.16

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

ARTEM-DZYUBA

Over

Invested

$138.42

Value

$139.05

PnL

+$0.63

Record

83%

802-165 (967)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$34.81

Value

$49.22

PnL

+$14.32

Record

47%

1041-1174 (2215)

LonnieHawkinss<$100

Over

Invested

$18.55

Value

$47.43

PnL

+$28.88

Record

53%

35-31 (66)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$21.91

Value

$23.13

PnL

+$1.22

Record

55%

547-442 (989)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$327.98

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$327.55

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$213.39

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$213.1

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$161.33

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$161.1

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.