Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (88%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-11-14?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 13¢ · $349 held · ends Nov 14

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$348.5

Combined PnL

-$9.54

Smart Money Entry

11.8¢ → 12.5¢

+6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$189.53

Total Shares1,682

Combined PnL-$9.77

No2 traders

Total Value$85.45

Total Shares97

Combined PnL+$0.23

Yes — 78%No — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 12¢	$143.25	$136.79	-$6.46	49% 4087-4288 (8375)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$160.51	$73.53	-$0.71	54% 1497-1295 (2792)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 11.1¢	$51.93	$49.04	-$2.54
└ No leg	Noavg 86¢	$23.53	$24.49	+$1.83
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 88¢	$71.68	$71.68	+$0	37% 1043-1777 (2820)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$36.36	$34.7	-$1.65	53% 2235-2015 (4250)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 88¢	$13.53	$13.77	+$0.23	59% 3805-2621 (6426)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$9.36	$8.58	-$0.78	51% 76-72 (148)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.2¢	$4.82	$4.54	-$0.28	48% 2231-2388 (4619)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$2.84	$2.5	-$0.34	46% 2830-3355 (6185)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.4¢	$2.13	$1.89	-$0.24	42% 1054-1470 (2524)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$0.55	$0.53	-$0.03	41% 706-1015 (1721)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$143.25

Value

$136.79

PnL

-$6.46

Record

49%

4087-4288 (8375)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$160.51

Value

$73.53

PnL

-$0.71

Record

54%

1497-1295 (2792)

Both legs:

Yes$51.9311.1¢-$2.54

No$23.5386¢+$1.83

Limousin<$100

Invested

$71.68

Value

$71.68

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1043-1777 (2820)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.36

Value

$34.7

PnL

-$1.65

Record

53%

2235-2015 (4250)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$13.53

Value

$13.77

PnL

+$0.23

Record

59%

3805-2621 (6426)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.36

Value

$8.58

PnL

-$0.78

Record

51%

76-72 (148)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.82

Value

$4.54

PnL

-$0.28

Record

48%

2231-2388 (4619)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.84

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.34

Record

46%

2830-3355 (6185)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.13

Value

$1.89

PnL

-$0.24

Record

42%

1054-1470 (2524)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$0.03

Record

41%

706-1015 (1721)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.1%

12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$610.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

710.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.