Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Vasco da Gama: Both Teams to Score

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 46¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Yes55¢No45¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$108.37

Smart Money Entry

47.9¢ → 45.5¢

-5% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares6,273

Combined PnL+$108.37

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO lonmi2511CTR	Noavg 48.2¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$44.93	59% 724-498 (1222)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Noavg 47¢	$499.99	$531.91	+$31.91	21% 52-196 (248)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Noavg 47¢	$499.99	$531.91	+$31.91	54% 45-38 (83)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 49¢	$265.28	$270.69	+$5.41	47% 974-1105 (2079)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 48.2¢	$372.67	$248.69	-$14.25	54% 1497-1295 (2792)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Noavg 47¢	$137.9	$146.71	+$8.8	59% 506-349 (855)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$63	$63	+$0	55% 532-434 (966)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$34.4	$34.06	-$0.34	49% 4087-4288 (8375)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$25.8	$25.8	+$0	37% 1043-1777 (2820)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$6.32	$6.32	+$0	37% 1048-1799 (2847)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$6.31	$6.31	+$0	38% 1068-1766 (2834)

lonmi2511CTR

Invested

$1,207.34

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$44.93

Record

59%

724-498 (1222)

NotradecopyCTR

Invested

$499.99

Value

$531.91

PnL

+$31.91

Record

21%

52-196 (248)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Invested

$499.99

Value

$531.91

PnL

+$31.91

Record

54%

45-38 (83)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$265.28

Value

$270.69

PnL

+$5.41

Record

47%

974-1105 (2079)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$372.67

Value

$248.69

PnL

-$14.25

Record

54%

1497-1295 (2792)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Invested

$137.9

Value

$146.71

PnL

+$8.8

Record

59%

506-349 (855)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$63

Value

$63

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

532-434 (966)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$34.4

Value

$34.06

PnL

-$0.34

Record

49%

4087-4288 (8375)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$25.8

Value

$25.8

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1043-1777 (2820)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$6.32

Value

$6.32

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1048-1799 (2847)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$6.31

Value

$6.31

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1068-1766 (2834)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 46%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.