Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 49¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 3

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$73.69

Smart Money Entry

44.1¢ → 48.5¢

+10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$994.2

Total Shares2,049

Combined PnL+$100.05

Over2 traders

Total Value$531.67

Total Shares1,033

Combined PnL-$26.37

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 47.9¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$24.12	51% 23065-21883 (44948)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.9¢	$806.34	$815.59	+$17.57
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$523.03	$481.34	-$41.7
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Underavg 44¢	$845.19	$942.57	+$97.38	50% 20032-20390 (40422)
TH TheComboConnoisseur	Overavg 52¢	$520	$515	-$5	53% 1069-938 (2007)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$22	$24.25	+$2.25	48% 7212-7684 (14896)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 54.8¢	$424.35	$16.67	-$21.37	58% 44275-32205 (76480)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$13.52	$13.52	+$0	53% 16345-14520 (30865)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$9.87	$10.19	+$0.32	53% 748-666 (1414)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.5	+$0.1	52% 8374-7652 (16026)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$1.16	$1.18	+$0.01	50% 27012-26932 (53944)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,732.66

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$24.12

Record

51%

23065-21883 (44948)

Both legs:

Under$806.3447.9¢+$17.57

Over$523.0356¢-$41.7

omnibus-076daaCTR

Under

Invested

$845.19

Value

$942.57

PnL

+$97.38

Record

50%

20032-20390 (40422)

TheComboConnoisseur

Over

Invested

$520

Value

$515

PnL

-$5

Record

53%

1069-938 (2007)

OddstormCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22

Value

$24.25

PnL

+$2.25

Record

48%

7212-7684 (14896)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$424.35

Value

$16.67

PnL

-$21.37

Record

58%

44275-32205 (76480)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.52

Value

$13.52

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

16345-14520 (30865)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.87

Value

$10.19

PnL

+$0.32

Record

53%

748-666 (1414)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

8374-7652 (16026)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.16

Value

$1.18

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

27012-26932 (53944)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.