Red Bull Bragantino vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: 1st Half O/U 0.5

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 100¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 28

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

88.8¢ → 100¢

+13% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares10,063

Combined PnL+$46.98

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares8,239

Combined PnL+$966.38

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609	Overavg 96.9¢	$8.5K	$7.6K	-$921.95	82% 2349-529 (2878)
SM SmallcoinsCTR	Underavg 3¢	$1.1K	$1.9K	+$1.7K	53% 1158-1022 (2180)
RN1	Overavg 60.8¢	$1.1K	$1.7K	+$639.51	54% 55806-47900 (103706)
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 52.5¢	$530.77	$777.97	+$247.21	72% 2303-875 (3178)
PA pauleta23	Overavg 65¢	$111.25	$324.13	+$212.88	67% 23132-11533 (34665)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 72.4¢	$233.63	$313.62	+$79.99	50% 12172-12403 (24575)
SH shiifoo<$100	Overavg 58¢	$57.99	$99.93	+$41.94	60% 3258-2188 (5446)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 40.7¢	$837.31	$44.84	-$792.47	59% 44722-31116 (75838)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 76¢	$33.55	$42.23	+$8.68	53% 3186-2848 (6034)
PE Peupo012CTR<$100	Underavg 3¢	$75	$36.13	-$36.13	34% 431-839 (1270)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 27.2¢	$9.78	$17.82	+$8.04	47% 4462-4936 (9398)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 54¢	$5.67	$10.49	+$4.82	59% 9444-6437 (15881)
VA Vampiro1<$100	Overavg 89¢	$24.39	$6.3	-$18.09	77% 3135-963 (4098)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 58¢	$6.3	$5.49	-$0.81	55% 8122-6555 (14677)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 55.3¢	$155.38	$1.4	-$153.97	50% 32842-32398 (65240)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609

Over

Invested

$8,493.11

Value

$7.6K

PnL

-$921.95

Record

82%

2349-529 (2878)

SmallcoinsCTR

Under

Invested

$1,100.08

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

53%

1158-1022 (2180)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,109.17

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$639.51

Record

54%

55806-47900 (103706)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$530.77

Value

$777.97

PnL

+$247.21

Record

72%

2303-875 (3178)

pauleta23

Over

Invested

$111.25

Value

$324.13

PnL

+$212.88

Record

67%

23132-11533 (34665)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$233.63

Value

$313.62

PnL

+$79.99

Record

50%

12172-12403 (24575)

shiifoo<$100

Over

Invested

$57.99

Value

$99.93

PnL

+$41.94

Record

60%

3258-2188 (5446)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$837.31

Value

$44.84

PnL

-$792.47

Record

59%

44722-31116 (75838)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$33.55

Value

$42.23

PnL

+$8.68

Record

53%

3186-2848 (6034)

Peupo012CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$75

Value

$36.13

PnL

-$36.13

Record

34%

431-839 (1270)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.78

Value

$17.82

PnL

+$8.04

Record

47%

4462-4936 (9398)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$5.67

Value

$10.49

PnL

+$4.82

Record

59%

9444-6437 (15881)

Vampiro1<$100

Over

Invested

$24.39

Value

$6.3

PnL

-$18.09

Record

77%

3135-963 (4098)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$6.3

Value

$5.49

PnL

-$0.81

Record

55%

8122-6555 (14677)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$155.38

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$153.97

Record

50%

32842-32398 (65240)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.