Will Botafogo FR vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw?

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (53%) · No at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 53%

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$57.45

Smart Money Entry

83.7¢ → 99.5¢

+19% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 17 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares7,604

Combined PnL+$154.73

Yes8 traders

Total Value$588.79

Total Shares3,162

Combined PnL-$97.28

No — 53%Yes — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (12 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 87.3¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$9.61	51% 24452-23135 (47587)
oieshfn345	Noavg 77.3¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$166.64	57% 2006-1484 (3490)
RN1	Noavg 85.5¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$59.36	53% 60181-52537 (112718)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 22.3¢	$301.22	$283.72	-$17.5	51% 1246-1188 (2434)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 25.3¢	$327.41	$258.82	-$68.59	52% 1242-1155 (2397)
ZaiZoiBele	Noavg 87.4¢	$2.0K	$255.28	+$60.69	80% 5246-1340 (6586)
GA GamblingOdyssey<$100	Noavg 77¢	$75.46	$77.42	+$1.96	51% 906-854 (1760)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 95.4¢	$62.15	$56.3	-$5.85	52% 14262-13030 (27292)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$47.67	$47.21	-$0.46	50% 27855-27713 (55568)
0xheavy888<$100	Noavg 78¢	$34.55	$27.46	+$0.52	56% 7759-6212 (13971)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$33.76	$27	-$6.76	53% 1287-1130 (2417)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 76¢	$12.33	$12.53	+$0.2	53% 16539-14712 (31251)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$7.47	$6.49	-$0.97	49% 14392-15079 (29471)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$8.24	$4.66	-$3.59	50% 20843-21072 (41915)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$3.33	$4.2	+$0.87	51% 6302-6067 (12369)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$4.58	$3.4	-$1.18	50% 1182-1169 (2351)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$12.97	$0.51	+$0.46	58% 45573-32987 (78560)

Flaznorp

Invested

$3,189.15

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$9.61

Record

51%

24452-23135 (47587)

oieshfn345

Invested

$2,216.55

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$166.64

Record

57%

2006-1484 (3490)

RN1

Invested

$1,387.54

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$59.36

Record

53%

60181-52537 (112718)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$301.22

Value

$283.72

PnL

-$17.5

Record

51%

1246-1188 (2434)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$327.41

Value

$258.82

PnL

-$68.59

Record

52%

1242-1155 (2397)

ZaiZoiBele

Invested

$1,963.91

Value

$255.28

PnL

+$60.69

Record

80%

5246-1340 (6586)

GamblingOdyssey<$100

Invested

$75.46

Value

$77.42

PnL

+$1.96

Record

51%

906-854 (1760)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$62.15

Value

$56.3

PnL

-$5.85

Record

52%

14262-13030 (27292)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$47.67

Value

$47.21

PnL

-$0.46

Record

50%

27855-27713 (55568)

0xheavy888<$100

Invested

$34.55

Value

$27.46

PnL

+$0.52

Record

56%

7759-6212 (13971)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.76

Value

$27

PnL

-$6.76

Record

53%

1287-1130 (2417)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$12.33

Value

$12.53

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

16539-14712 (31251)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.47

Value

$6.49

PnL

-$0.97

Record

49%

14392-15079 (29471)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.24

Value

$4.66

PnL

-$3.59

Record

50%

20843-21072 (41915)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.33

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$0.87

Record

51%

6302-6067 (12369)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.58

Value

$3.4

PnL

-$1.18

Record

50%

1182-1169 (2351)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.97

Value

$0.51

PnL

+$0.46

Record

58%

45573-32987 (78560)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 17 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (12 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.