Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Mbilli, while the market favors Canelo (72%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Christian Mbilli
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Mbilli (83%) · Mbilli at 28¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Mbilli
6
Mbilli 83%
$1.5K
$11.04
28.5¢ → 28.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidMbilli at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Canelo 72%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Mbilli. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JE Jest55 | Caneloavg 70.1¢ | $757.1 | $691.19 | +$4.1 | 75% 1016-338 (1354) |
KC Kch-TempCTR | Mbilliavg 28¢ | $576.68 | $586.98 | +$10.3 | 51% 216-209 (425) |
SH shovelingdiggingCTR | Mbilliavg 30¢ | $200 | $196.67 | -$3.33 | 60% 311-208 (519) |
MA manoamanoCTR<$100 | Mbilliavg 29¢ | $48.28 | $48.28 | -$0 | 51% 479-460 (939) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Mbilliavg 29¢ | $85.51 | $15.09 | +$0 | 36% 15634-27552 (43186) |
GG GGLPLCTR<$100 | Mbilliavg 29¢ | $1.45 | $1.45 | -$0.03 | 50% 680-674 (1354) |
Invested
$757.1
Value
$691.19
PnL
+$4.1
Record
75%
1016-338 (1354)
Invested
$576.68
Value
$586.98
PnL
+$10.3
Record
51%
216-209 (425)
Invested
$200
Value
$196.67
PnL
-$3.33
Record
60%
311-208 (519)
Invested
$48.28
Value
$48.28
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
479-460 (939)
Invested
$85.51
Value
$15.09
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
15634-27552 (43186)
Invested
$1.45
Value
$1.45
PnL
-$0.03
Record
50%
680-674 (1354)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.