Will Bamin Real Potosí win on 2026-11-08?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 66¢ · $601 held · ends Nov 8

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$600.62

Combined PnL

-$77.38

Smart Money Entry

68.9¢ → 65.5¢

-5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$574.97

Total Shares952

Combined PnL-$80.75

Yes3 traders

Total Value$25.65

Total Shares66

Combined PnL+$3.37

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 69.1¢	$431.8	$371.88	-$59.93	62% 998-609 (1607)
VE Venusian	Noavg 69.1¢	$125	$107.7	-$17.31	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 67.9¢	$98.92	$95.4	-$3.52	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.1¢	$14.52	$17.77	+$3.25	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$6.11	$5.85	-$0.25	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.1¢	$1.65	$2.03	+$0.37	48% 1776-1912 (3688)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$431.8

Value

$371.88

PnL

-$59.93

Record

62%

998-609 (1607)

Venusian

Invested

$125

Value

$107.7

PnL

-$17.31

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$98.92

Value

$95.4

PnL

-$3.52

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.52

Value

$17.77

PnL

+$3.25

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.11

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$0.25

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.65

Value

$2.03

PnL

+$0.37

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.