Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will CA Nacional Potosí win on 2026-11-08?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 39¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$0.06

Smart Money Entry

40.9¢ → 39¢

-5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$496.72

Total Shares800

Combined PnL+$41.1

Yes4 traders

Total Value$471.81

Total Shares1,258

Combined PnL-$41.16

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 55.7¢	$635.3	$1.0K	+$2.64	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
└ No leg	Noavg 55.7¢	$622.28	$682.1	+$33.78
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42.6¢	$369.86	$338.72	-$31.14
SE sentrio	Noavg 62.6¢	$208.16	$202.97	-$5.19	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 45.5¢	$158.24	$132	-$26.24	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
LU lukibazdonauki754CTR	Yesavg 42¢	$144.48	$129	-$15.48	64% 1239-706 (1945)
VE Venusian	Noavg 51.9¢	$101.18	$120.63	+$19.45	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 49¢	$86.86	$107.5	+$20.64	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
GC GC-PCTR	Yesavg 37.4¢	$281.1	$105.41	+$0.28	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
NM NM-PCTR	Yesavg 37.4¢	$281.05	$105.39	+$0.28	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 55¢	$56.5	$62.5	+$6	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 58¢	$2.93	$3.13	+$0.2	49% 2102-2190 (4292)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$635.3

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$2.64

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Both legs:

No$622.2855.7¢+$33.78

Yes$369.8642.6¢-$31.14

sentrio

Invested

$208.16

Value

$202.97

PnL

-$5.19

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$158.24

Value

$132

PnL

-$26.24

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

lukibazdonauki754CTR

Yes

Invested

$144.48

Value

$129

PnL

-$15.48

Record

64%

1239-706 (1945)

Venusian

Invested

$101.18

Value

$120.63

PnL

+$19.45

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

LightParadox

Invested

$86.86

Value

$107.5

PnL

+$20.64

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

GC-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$281.1

Value

$105.41

PnL

+$0.28

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

NM-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$281.05

Value

$105.39

PnL

+$0.28

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$56.5

Value

$62.5

PnL

+$6

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$2.93

Value

$3.13

PnL

+$0.2

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 39%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.2%

39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$142.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

242.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.