Will CDT Real Oruro win on 2026-11-07?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 65¢ · $841 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$841
-$61.95
71¢ → 64.5¢
-9% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 69.4¢ | $363.04 | $345.63 | -$17.41 | 51% 26991-25572 (52563) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 72.1¢ | $182 | $163.45 | -$15.91 | 49% 1790-1872 (3662) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 73¢ | $126.2 | $111.5 | -$14.71 | 48% 1730-1861 (3591) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 72¢ | $114.24 | $102.3 | -$11.1 | 49% 1756-1850 (3606) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35.1¢ | $69.53 | $70.28 | +$0.75 | 50% 21519-21799 (43318) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $44.25 | $39.63 | -$3.99 | 50% 1808-1796 (3604) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $6.3 | $6.45 | +$0.15 | 58% 47408-34193 (81601) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $1.5 | $1.78 | +$0.28 | 50% 26346-25970 (52316) |
Invested
$363.04
Value
$345.63
PnL
-$17.41
Record
51%
26991-25572 (52563)
Invested
$182
Value
$163.45
PnL
-$15.91
Record
49%
1790-1872 (3662)
Invested
$126.2
Value
$111.5
PnL
-$14.71
Record
48%
1730-1861 (3591)
Invested
$114.24
Value
$102.3
PnL
-$11.1
Record
49%
1756-1850 (3606)
Invested
$69.53
Value
$70.28
PnL
+$0.75
Record
50%
21519-21799 (43318)
Invested
$44.25
Value
$39.63
PnL
-$3.99
Record
50%
1808-1796 (3604)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$6.3
Value
$6.45
PnL
+$0.15
Record
58%
47408-34193 (81601)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$1.78
PnL
+$0.28
Record
50%
26346-25970 (52316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.