Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will GV CD San José win on 2026-11-07?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 42¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$1.0K
-$1.41
45.8¢ → 41.5¢
-9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 52.8¢ | $510.29 | $534.26 | +$23.98 | 51% 26991-25572 (52563) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Yesavg 42.2¢ | $297.73 | $299.63 | +$10.43 | 49% 1756-1850 (3606) |
LI LimousinCTR | Yesavg 55¢ | $153.27 | $118.45 | -$31.36 | 50% 1808-1796 (3604) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45.2¢ | $87.3 | $82.02 | -$5.27 | 48% 1730-1861 (3591) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $7.21 | $8.38 | +$1.32 | 53% 2679-2359 (5038) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45.2¢ | $2.26 | $2.13 | -$0.08 | 49% 1790-1872 (3662) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.13 | -$0.43 | 50% 26346-25970 (52316) |
Invested
$510.29
Value
$534.26
PnL
+$23.98
Record
51%
26991-25572 (52563)
Invested
$297.73
Value
$299.63
PnL
+$10.43
Record
49%
1756-1850 (3606)
Invested
$153.27
Value
$118.45
PnL
-$31.36
Record
50%
1808-1796 (3604)
Invested
$87.3
Value
$82.02
PnL
-$5.27
Record
48%
1730-1861 (3591)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$7.21
Value
$8.38
PnL
+$1.32
Record
53%
2679-2359 (5038)
Invested
$2.26
Value
$2.13
PnL
-$0.08
Record
49%
1790-1872 (3662)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.13
PnL
-$0.43
Record
50%
26346-25970 (52316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.