Will Club Guabirá win on 2026-11-07?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 52¢ · $28 held · ends Nov 7

Yes52¢No48¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$27.66

Combined PnL

-$0.86

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$9.99

Total Shares23

Combined PnL-$0.11

Yes4 traders

Total Value$17.66

Total Shares21

Combined PnL-$0.75

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$9.99	$9.99	-$0.11	53% 2695-2376 (5071)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Yesavg 57.2¢	$5.48	$5.23	-$0.25	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
LI Limousin<$100	Yesavg 54.2¢	$4.97	$4.85	-$0.12	50% 1843-1850 (3693)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$4.95	$4.85	-$0.1	50% 26397-26018 (52415)
LI LightParadox<$100	Yesavg 58.2¢	$3	$2.73	-$0.27	49% 1791-1892 (3683)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.99

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

2695-2376 (5071)

Flaznorp<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.48

Value

$5.23

PnL

-$0.25

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

Limousin<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.97

Value

$4.85

PnL

-$0.12

Record

50%

1843-1850 (3693)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.85

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

26397-26018 (52415)

LightParadox<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$0.27

Record

49%

1791-1892 (3683)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.