Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-11-08?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 62¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

Yes62¢No38¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$22.89

Smart Money Entry

62.2¢ → 61.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$747.32

Total Shares1,162

Combined PnL+$22.6

No5 traders

Total Value$113.2

Total Shares247

Combined PnL+$0.29

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 40.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$17.63	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
└ No leg	Noavg 40.9¢	$762.42	$735.48	-$26.95
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 62.7¢	$392.15	$378.22	+$9.32
VE Venusian	Yesavg 62.2¢	$119.15	$729.21	+$23.51	47% 2177-2413 (4590)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 58.2¢	$186.03	$186.65	+$0.62	50% 32573-32704 (65277)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58.2¢	$108.64	$114.73	+$6.09
└ No leg	Noavg 41.4¢	$77.39	$71.92	-$5.47
SE sentrioARB<$100	Noavg 40.9¢	$138.26	$141.5	+$3.24	50% 27958-27406 (55364)
└ No leg	Noavg 40.9¢	$79.85	$88.76	+$8.91
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60.4¢	$58.4	$52.74	-$5.67
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$79.55	$79.55	+$0	50% 23482-23489 (46971)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$23.14	$23.59	+$0.45	49% 2208-2325 (4533)
LI LightParadox<$100	Yesavg 62.2¢	$11.77	$10.59	-$1.14	47% 2124-2359 (4483)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 38.9¢	$22.06	$7.63	-$0.35	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$7.29	$7.51	+$0.22	47% 2130-2385 (4515)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$1.8	$1.93	+$0.13	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$0.44	$0.5	+$0.06	50% 48590-48183 (96773)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$1,089.75

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$17.63

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

Both legs:

No$762.4240.9¢-$26.95

Yes$392.1562.7¢+$9.32

Venusian

Yes

Invested

$119.15

Value

$729.21

PnL

+$23.51

Record

47%

2177-2413 (4590)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$186.03

Value

$186.65

PnL

+$0.62

Record

50%

32573-32704 (65277)

Both legs:

Yes$108.6458.2¢+$6.09

No$77.3941.4¢-$5.47

sentrioARB<$100

Invested

$138.26

Value

$141.5

PnL

+$3.24

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

Both legs:

No$79.8540.9¢+$8.91

Yes$58.460.4¢-$5.67

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$79.55

Value

$79.55

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

23482-23489 (46971)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$23.14

Value

$23.59

PnL

+$0.45

Record

49%

2208-2325 (4533)

LightParadox<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.77

Value

$10.59

PnL

-$1.14

Record

47%

2124-2359 (4483)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$22.06

Value

$7.63

PnL

-$0.35

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

MadridTime<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.29

Value

$7.51

PnL

+$0.22

Record

47%

2130-2385 (4515)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.93

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.5

PnL

+$0.06

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.