Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (65%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Club Blooming win on 2026-11-08?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 35¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$6.97

Smart Money Entry

34.5¢ → 35¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$434.26

Total Shares1,241

Combined PnL+$6.97

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 62.7¢	$2.9K	$1.4K	+$28.31	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
└ No leg	Noavg 62.7¢	$830.38	$861.39	+$30.89
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.2¢	$543.13	$540.66	-$2.58
SE sentrioARB<$100	Yesavg 35.3¢	$544.25	$246.21	-$2.37	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.3¢	$126.67	$125.48	-$1.2
└ No leg	Noavg 65.6¢	$121.88	$120.72	-$1.16
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 34.5¢	$626.4	$219.24	+$3.2	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 34¢	$261	$91.35	+$2.61	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$51.26	$52	+$0.74	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$57.71	$20.2	+$0.58	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 35.4¢	$18.6	$18.66	+$0.05	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 35.4¢	$53.15	$18.6	-$0.21	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 35.5¢	$20	$7	-$0.1	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$6.16	$6.25	+$0.09	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$0.96	$0.97	+$0.01	50% 23433-23429 (46862)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$2,869.95

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$28.31

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Both legs:

No$830.3862.7¢+$30.89

Yes$543.1335.2¢-$2.58

sentrioARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$544.25

Value

$246.21

PnL

-$2.37

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Both legs:

Invested

$626.4

Value

$219.24

PnL

+$3.2

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$261

Value

$91.35

PnL

+$2.61

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.26

Value

$52

PnL

+$0.74

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.71

Value

$20.2

PnL

+$0.58

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.6

Value

$18.66

PnL

+$0.05

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.15

Value

$18.6

PnL

-$0.21

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

PnL

-$0.1

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.16

Value

$6.25

PnL

+$0.09

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.96

Value

$0.97

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 35%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.2%

35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$169.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

269.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.