Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will FC Universitario win on 2026-11-09?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 26¢ · $273 held · ends Nov 10

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$272.77

Combined PnL

$6.9

Smart Money Entry

23.5¢ → 25.5¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$120.88

Total Shares474

Combined PnL+$7.77

No4 traders

Total Value$151.89

Total Shares175

Combined PnL-$0.87

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 23.9¢	$377.63	$96.3	+$6.08	—
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 76.5¢	$101.31	$82.07	+$0.82	—
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 76.7¢	$63.08	$46.99	-$1.4	—
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 76.9¢	$24.52	$19.1	-$0.37	—
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$11.87	$12.1	+$0.24	—
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$23.68	$6.04	+$0.83	—
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$16.91	$4.31	+$0.25	—
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 77¢	$3.65	$3.73	+$0.08	—
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$1.51	$1.83	+$0.32	—
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$0.25	$0.3	+$0.05	—

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$377.63

Value

$96.3

PnL

+$6.08

Record

—

Flaznorp

Invested

$101.31

Value

$82.07

PnL

+$0.82

Record

—

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$63.08

Value

$46.99

PnL

-$1.4

Record

—

sentrio<$100

Invested

$24.52

Value

$19.1

PnL

-$0.37

Record

—

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.87

Value

$12.1

PnL

+$0.24

Record

—

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.68

Value

$6.04

PnL

+$0.83

Record

—

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.91

Value

$4.31

PnL

+$0.25

Record

—

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$0.08

Record

—

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.51

Value

$1.83

PnL

+$0.32

Record

—

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.3

PnL

+$0.05

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$263.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

364.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.