Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (80%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-11-07?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 21¢ · $972 held · ends Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$972.43
$6.43
19.5¢ → 20.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 80.7¢ | $664.14 | $683.46 | +$19.32 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 80.7¢ | $551.48 | $543.38 | -$8.1 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 16.5¢ | $112.66 | $140.08 | +$27.42 | |
SE sentrio | Yesavg 80.3¢ | $100.86 | $103.03 | +$2.17 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
LI LimousinCTR | Noavg 20¢ | $305 | $64.05 | +$3.05 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 19.1¢ | $58.93 | $61.8 | +$2.87 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 19.4¢ | $29.82 | $30.73 | +$0.91 | 49% 1843-1935 (3778) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yesavg 87.6¢ | $27.76 | $25.36 | -$2.4 | 50% 21550-21844 (43394) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Noavg 20.8¢ | $4.16 | $4 | -$0.16 | 49% 1800-1900 (3700) |
Invested
$664.14
Value
$683.46
PnL
+$19.32
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Both legs:
Invested
$100.86
Value
$103.03
PnL
+$2.17
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$305
Value
$64.05
PnL
+$3.05
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
Invested
$58.93
Value
$61.8
PnL
+$2.87
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Invested
$29.82
Value
$30.73
PnL
+$0.91
Record
49%
1843-1935 (3778)
Invested
$27.76
Value
$25.36
PnL
-$2.4
Record
50%
21550-21844 (43394)
Invested
$4.16
Value
$4
PnL
-$0.16
Record
49%
1800-1900 (3700)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.