Will VfL Osnabrück win on 2026-11-07?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 62¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 7

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

$1.15

Smart Money Entry

59.6¢ → 61.5¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares9,739

Combined PnL+$2.1

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,622

Combined PnL-$0.95

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 60.1¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$43.94	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Noavg 59¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$28.92	47% 205-228 (433)
0X 0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b	Noavg 60.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$60.61	53% 232-209 (441)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 58¢	$805.69	$854.31	+$48.62	50% 21541-21839 (43380)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 41.8¢	$675.99	$623.33	-$52.67	50% 28918-28732 (57650)
NM NM-PCTR	Yesavg 39.2¢	$407.95	$436.36	+$28.37	64% 10181-5719 (15900)
GC GC-PCTR	Yesavg 39.6¢	$385.59	$408.94	+$23.34	64% 10178-5767 (15945)
VE Venusian	Noavg 58.2¢	$114.07	$113.63	-$0.44	49% 1833-1925 (3758)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 58.8¢	$34.48	$33.99	-$0.49	50% 1843-1850 (3693)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,830.94

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$43.94

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Invested

$1,706.26

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$28.92

Record

47%

205-228 (433)

0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b

Invested

$1,310.79

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$60.61

Record

53%

232-209 (441)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$805.69

Value

$854.31

PnL

+$48.62

Record

50%

21541-21839 (43380)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$675.99

Value

$623.33

PnL

-$52.67

Record

50%

28918-28732 (57650)

NM-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$407.95

Value

$436.36

PnL

+$28.37

Record

64%

10181-5719 (15900)

GC-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$385.59

Value

$408.94

PnL

+$23.34

Record

64%

10178-5767 (15945)

Venusian

Invested

$114.07

Value

$113.63

PnL

-$0.44

Record

49%

1833-1925 (3758)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$34.48

Value

$33.99

PnL

-$0.49

Record

50%

1843-1850 (3693)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.