Holstein Kiel vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 72¢ · $693 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 25%
$692.76
-$15.53
70.9¢ → 71.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-11 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH TheComboConnoisseur | Underavg 71¢ | $355 | $365 | +$10 | 53% 1125-987 (2112) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 70.7¢ | $182.05 | $184.76 | +$2.71 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
DV dv-pmCTR | Overavg 29¢ | $145 | $117.5 | -$27.5 | 48% 3364-3589 (6953) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 29¢ | $15.98 | $15.7 | -$0.28 | 49% 1833-1925 (3758) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Overavg 33¢ | $4.83 | $3.96 | -$0.66 | 53% 2695-2376 (5071) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 27¢ | $3.52 | $3.72 | +$0.2 | 50% 28918-28732 (57650) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 28¢ | $1.4 | $1.42 | +$0.03 | 50% 1843-1850 (3693) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 28¢ | $0.74 | $0.71 | -$0.03 | 58% 47486-34282 (81768) |
Invested
$355
Value
$365
PnL
+$10
Record
53%
1125-987 (2112)
Invested
$182.05
Value
$184.76
PnL
+$2.71
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
Invested
$145
Value
$117.5
PnL
-$27.5
Record
48%
3364-3589 (6953)
Invested
$15.98
Value
$15.7
PnL
-$0.28
Record
49%
1833-1925 (3758)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$4.83
Value
$3.96
PnL
-$0.66
Record
53%
2695-2376 (5071)
Invested
$3.52
Value
$3.72
PnL
+$0.2
Record
50%
28918-28732 (57650)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$1.42
PnL
+$0.03
Record
50%
1843-1850 (3693)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$0.74
Value
$0.71
PnL
-$0.03
Record
58%
47486-34282 (81768)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.