Holstein Kiel vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 56¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 7

Over45¢Under55¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$34.39

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 55.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 10 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares9,194

Combined PnL+$61.88

Over8 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares6,800

Combined PnL-$27.49

Under — 20%Over — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 54.8¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	+$61.88	42% 8163-11357 (19520)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 45¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$36.82	49% 14973-15876 (30849)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 45¢	$983	$972.08	-$10.92	50% 28899-28703 (57602)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 54¢	$415.1	$353.09	-$62.01	51% 27051-25620 (52671)
TH TheComboConnoisseur	Underavg 50¢	$250	$250	+$0	53% 1125-987 (2112)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 45¢	$225	$232.5	+$7.5	64% 10178-5715 (15893)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 45¢	$225	$232.5	+$7.5	64% 10176-5763 (15939)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 51.2¢	$208.15	$203.07	-$5.08	49% 1821-1900 (3721)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Underavg 55¢	$75.96	$73.35	-$2.61	50% 26383-26006 (52389)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55¢	$43.25	$43.65	+$0.39
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$32.71	$29.7	-$3
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 51.2¢	$22.91	$22.35	-$0.56	49% 1777-1875 (3652)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$10	$9.26	-$0.74	53% 2691-2371 (5062)

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$4,763.3

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$61.88

Record

42%

8163-11357 (19520)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$1,104.6

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$36.82

Record

49%

14973-15876 (30849)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$983

Value

$972.08

PnL

-$10.92

Record

50%

28899-28703 (57602)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$415.1

Value

$353.09

PnL

-$62.01

Record

51%

27051-25620 (52671)

TheComboConnoisseur

Under

Invested

$250

Value

$250

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1125-987 (2112)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$225

Value

$232.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

64%

10178-5715 (15893)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$225

Value

$232.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

64%

10176-5763 (15939)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$208.15

Value

$203.07

PnL

-$5.08

Record

49%

1821-1900 (3721)

sentrioARB<$100

Under

Invested

$75.96

Value

$73.35

PnL

-$2.61

Record

50%

26383-26006 (52389)

Both legs:

Invested

$22.91

Value

$22.35

PnL

-$0.56

Record

49%

1777-1875 (3652)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$9.26

PnL

-$0.74

Record

53%

2691-2371 (5062)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 10 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.