Will Holstein Kiel vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 75¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 7

Yes26¢No74¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.8K

Combined PnL

-$110.21

Smart Money Entry

72.5¢ → 74.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares5,738

Combined PnL-$116.54

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares5,435

Combined PnL+$6.33

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 76¢	$4.3K	$4.1K	-$202.91	50% 28918-28732 (57650)
└ No leg	Noavg 76¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$60.5
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$142.41
SP spyGoodLuck77	Noavg 72.2¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$124.67	62% 1921-1168 (3089)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 24.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$63.87	50% 1843-1850 (3693)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 73¢	$339.95	$342.34	+$2.39	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 31.1¢	$359.34	$306.68	-$52.66	49% 1791-1892 (3683)
oieshfn345	Noavg 73.5¢	$283.67	$287.65	+$3.98	57% 2109-1562 (3671)
VE Venusian	Noavg 75¢	$191.13	$191.64	+$0.52	49% 1833-1925 (3758)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.9¢	$97.24	$92.02	-$5.22	46% 1788-2098 (3886)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 72¢	$61.12	$62.37	+$1.25	48% 1767-1905 (3672)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$1.31	$1.51	+$0.2	53% 62307-54551 (116858)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$0.89	$1.02	+$0.13	51% 38217-37441 (75658)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$4,333.69

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$202.91

Record

50%

28918-28732 (57650)

Both legs:

No$3,153.6976¢-$60.5

Yes$1,18029¢-$142.41

spyGoodLuck77

Invested

$3,297.69

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$124.67

Record

62%

1921-1168 (3089)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,098.67

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$63.87

Record

50%

1843-1850 (3693)

Flaznorp

Invested

$339.95

Value

$342.34

PnL

+$2.39

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$359.34

Value

$306.68

PnL

-$52.66

Record

49%

1791-1892 (3683)

oieshfn345

Invested

$283.67

Value

$287.65

PnL

+$3.98

Record

57%

2109-1562 (3671)

Venusian

Invested

$191.13

Value

$191.64

PnL

+$0.52

Record

49%

1833-1925 (3758)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$97.24

Value

$92.02

PnL

-$5.22

Record

46%

1788-2098 (3886)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$61.12

Value

$62.37

PnL

+$1.25

Record

48%

1767-1905 (3672)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.31

Value

$1.51

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

62307-54551 (116858)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$1.02

PnL

+$0.13

Record

51%

38217-37441 (75658)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.